SunSirs: According to the SunSirs commodity market analysis system, the price trend of locally refined gasoline and diesel in the first half of March has declined. As of the 14th, the domestic price of 92# gasoline was 8,095 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.67% in the first half of the month; The domestic price of 0 #diesel is 6,848.8 RMB/ton, with a half month price decline of 2.67%.

Cost aspect: The decline in crude oil prices has led to weak cost support

The recent trend of international oil prices has declined. As of the 13th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $66.55 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $69.88 per barrel. On the one hand, the United States is increasing its crude oil production, coupled with escalating trade tariffs that may suppress global economic growth, which is bearish for the international oil market. On the other hand, the situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased. If the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine ends, the United States will also ease its oil sanctions against Russia, causing international oil prices to fall. Overall, the trend of international oil prices has declined, leading to a decrease in domestic gasoline and diesel prices.

Supply side: Shandong's local refining industry starts to rise, supply side is loose

Recently, the operating rate of main refineries has increased, and resource supply has increased. The average operating rate of Shandong's refineries is around 52%. The supply of imported raw materials has basically normalized, and the cost of raw materials has decreased. Some refineries that have stopped work have plans to resume work. The increase in operating rates of refineries and the increase in supply have had a certain negative impact on the market situation, and the prices of gasoline and diesel refineries have all declined.

Demand side: The demand situation generally shows a downward trend in the market trend

In terms of gasoline, recent activities such as residents' spring outings have had a certain impact on gasoline terminal consumption, but without holiday support, gasoline terminal consumption is normal. Gasoline terminal consumption is mainly focused on residents' daily short distance travel, and intermediaries replenish their inventory according to demand. In addition, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand. Overall, the trend of gasoline market is mainly declining. In terms of diesel, with the rise in temperature, outdoor mining, infrastructure and other units have increased their production, and the demand for diesel in the market is relatively stable. However, the crude oil market remains low, and the increase in supply has suppressed the diesel market, causing a decline in the trend of the diesel market.

Future forecast: Currently, the crude oil market is mixed with bearish factors, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. However, the United States has imposed tariffs on various countries, and the demand for crude oil is generally average. In the short term, crude oil prices will mainly fluctuate. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate has increased, the supply of refined oil has increased, and there is still support for gasoline demand, with gasoline market prices mainly fluctuating; Although diesel is affected by the negative impact of cost and crude oil, the demand for diesel increases with the rise of temperature in the later stage, and diesel has strong resistance to decline.

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