According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of March 14th, the average sales price of PET is 6,117 RMB/ton. The drag of raw material prices and the low downstream purchasing willingness led to a weak downward trend in prices last week.

In terms of cost: The international crude oil market is affected by geopolitical easing, OPEC+production increases, US tariff policies that suppress demand, coupled with Iraq's resumption of crude oil exports. International oil prices have fallen below the key support level of $70 per barrel, weakening the cost support of the polyester industry chain. Although PTA processing fees have briefly rebounded to a reasonable range of 325 RMB/ton due to concentrated maintenance, the expected increase in new production capacity and import recovery have suppressed long-term profit margins; The inventory of ethylene glycol at the port has risen to a high of 584,400 tons, and the loose supply and demand pattern is difficult to change.

In terms of supply and demand: The polyester bottle chip industry is at the end of its capacity expansion cycle, with plans to add 2.15 million tons of new production capacity by 2025. Coupled with the current high inventory level during the same period, market concerns about oversupply have intensified. Despite weak demand, the operating rates of major production enterprises remain high, leading to a continuous increase in supply and exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance. The textile and clothing industry has entered the traditional peak season of "golden three and silver four", but the actual order release is limited. The raw material inventory of weaving enterprises has dropped to 8.26 days, while the finished product inventory has increased to 23.64 days, indicating cautious terminal replenishment. The release of new production capacity and high inventory have suppressed price rebound, but there is no significant improvement signal on the demand side.

In response to the current market situation, SunSirs believes that crude oil and raw material prices lack upward driving force, and the release of new production capacity and high inventory suppress price rebound. There is no obvious improvement signal on the demand side, and the price of polyester bottle chips may continue to fluctuate weakly. The actual trend still needs to pay attention to the follow-up equipment and demand situation, as well as the cost support under the traction of crude oil.

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