Price trend

This week (3.10-14), domestic liquid ammonia rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 1.0%. The main reason was that in the context of stable downstream demand, some units in the northern region have undergone maintenance, easing supply pressure. As of March 14th, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was between 2,600-2,800 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

The device was temporarily on maintenance, and supply pressure was easied

From the supply side, this week, the supply has been basically stable, and the supply pressure has slightly eased. The production of equipment in the main northern production areas has slightly decreased. This week, the Hualu equipment malfunctioned and the supply decreased. In addition, there was not much supply pressure in Hebei, Anhui, and the Hubei and Hunan regions. Prices generally increased during the week, but stabilized over the weekend, with manufacturers raising prices by over 100 RMB/ton this week. The market showed a basic balance between supply and demand.

The overall improvement of the industrial chain was not significant

From the perspective of the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, there has been little improvement in the upstream and downstream environment of liquid ammonia, with the main reason being the decline in upstream natural gas. In addition, the downstream sector has seen more declines than gains, indicating that the main reason for the rebound in liquid ammonia prices was the favorable supply side, and there was no significant support from the demand side; In addition, especially in maintaining essential industrial demand. Downstream urea prices have slightly decreased, with a drop of 0.11% this week.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that the expected increase in liquid ammonia prices this week was only a short-term behavior, and the trading atmosphere slightly cooled down over the weekend. Hualu plant is expected to resume work on Saturday and production next week, and the expected increase in supply will put pressure on ammonia prices. In addition, there are no bright spots on the demand side, and downstream factories have insufficient operating rates, which will suppress the shipment speed of ammonia plants. It is difficult for liquid ammonia to maintain its upward trend in the later stage.

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