Price trend

The recent decline in the domestic PTA market has improved slightly, showing a slight rebound. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of March 18th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4,855 RMB/ton, an increase of 2.26% compared to March 12th.

Analysis review

Crude oil tended to fluctuate to be stronger. On March 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 67.58 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 71.07 US dollars per barrel. In the PX market, some South Korean PX facilities have delayed restart or extended maintenance time, which was favorable for the PTA market. Starting from mid March, Zhejiang Petrochemical's 2.5 million tons, CNOOC Huizhou's 1.5 million tons, Jiujiang Petrochemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical's 660,000 tons, and Tianjin Petrochemical have all planned maintenance, and the domestic PX operating rate has gradually decreased. The planned maintenance of PX units in April and May was still relatively concentrated, and the scale of maintenance was slightly lower than the same period last year. It is expected that the destocking of PX in the second quarter will exceed 500,000 tons, and the spot liquidity of PX may be tight in the future.

In March, PTA plant maintenance increased due to low processing costs and lower than expected terminal demand. In March, with the maintenance of more facilities such as Yizheng Chemical Fiber and Hengli Dalian, the scale of PTA maintenance has expanded again, and the operating rate was around 75%. The expected PTA destocking in March was around 300,000 tons, and the overall destocking in the second quarter is expected to be around 500,000 tons.

Downstream polyester performance was weak, and the pressure was mainly affected by weaving. The performance of "Golden March and Silver April" was not as expected, and the operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was only 67%. This year's spring and summer orders are insufficient compared to the same period in previous years. At the same time, the release of US tariffs has further dragged down the textile market with orders placed in the export market, resulting in average demand support. Finished fabric inventory remained high, post holiday orders were insufficient, the market was cautious, and purchasing enthusiasm was not high.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that with the strengthening of cost support, PTA will show a trend of destocking in March. As of March 18th, downstream consumers mainly consumed pre season inventory. With the traditional peak season of the textile industry gradually approaching, if the downstream order situation improves, it is expected to continue to boost the PTA market.

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