The domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on March 19th. The retail price of refined oil has been lowered again in this round. The retail price of refined oil in 2025 has experienced two upward adjustments, two downward adjustments, and one stranded adjustment. During this cycle, the trend of crude oil market has declined, and the rate of change of crude oil remains negative. The retail price of refined oil in 2025 will usher in the "third" downward adjustment.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend has declined. As of the 18th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $66.90 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $70.56 per barrel. The downward trend of crude oil prices during this cycle is due to the positive signals released by the Russia Ukraine peace talks. The United States is considering easing sanctions on Russia, which has reduced potential supply risks. In addition, oil producing countries plan to increase production slightly from April, which has affected the international crude oil market and led to a decline; On the other hand, the imposition of tariffs by the United States has intensified market concerns and may drag down global economic and demand expectations, resulting in a sluggish crude oil market. As of the 19th, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was -6.95%, corresponding to a reduction of 280 RMB/ton for domestic gasoline and 270 RMB/ton for diesel, which is equivalent to a reduction of 92# 0.21 RMB per liter, 95# 0.23 RMB per liter, and 0# 0.23 RMB per liter.

In terms of gasoline, the operating rate of local refineries has recently increased. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries has risen to around 53%, and the operating rate of major refineries nationwide is around 82%. The supply of refined oil products from local refineries has also increased. Recently, residents' spring outings and other activities have had a certain impact on gasoline terminal consumption, but without holiday support, gasoline terminal consumption is normal. Gasoline terminal consumption has returned to residents' daily short distance travel as the main trend. Intermediaries replenish their inventory according to demand, and the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand. Overall, the trend of gasoline market is mainly declining.

In terms of diesel: Recently, there has been an increase in the supply side of the diesel market. In terms of demand, orders for diesel fuel for industrial and mining infrastructure as well as logistics have rebounded, and the pace of vehicle sales has accelerated. The demand for diesel has also improved. However, the low crude oil market has suppressed the diesel market, and the combined effects of long and short factors have led to recent fluctuations in diesel prices.

Currently, the crude oil market is fluctuating and declining, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. However, as oil producing countries increase their crude oil production and the United States imposes tariffs, the crude oil market prices are mainly fluctuating at a low level in the short term. From a domestic perspective, the short-term refinery operating rate has increased, the supply of refined oil has increased, and there is still support for gasoline demand, with gasoline market prices mainly fluctuating; Although diesel is affected by the negative impact of cost and crude oil, there is still room for recovery in the later stage as the demand for diesel increases with the rise of temperature.

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