Aluminum prices fluctuate in March

Aluminum prices first rose and then fell in March, and have recently experienced a slight decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of March 21, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20,823.33 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.23% compared to the market average price of 20,570 RMB/ton on March 1.

Analysis review

In the early stage, aluminum prices continued their strong trend from January to February. Recently, aluminum prices have fluctuated and remained strong overall, especially in the context of a significant drop in raw material alumina prices. The logical basis for the strong aluminum prices was as follows:

1. As of March 21, the non-ferrous metal sector was greatly affected by macro factors, and the overall trend was in the macro pricing cycle. Macro sentiment focuses on the follow-up interest rate cut path of the Federal Reserve. As a non-ferrous sector with good international liquidity, it is easily affected by overseas funding factors. The overall trend of macro sentiment was temporarily bullish on aluminum prices.

2. With the imposition of tariffs on aluminum products, the increase in overseas aluminum prices, the ceiling restrictions on domestic production capacity, and the support of the "trade in" policy for terminal demand, as well as the continuous efforts of sectors such as new energy and A1, the end consumption path of aluminum products has expanded significantly.

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