As of April 26, the average selling price of domestic fuel oil was 3,660 RMB/ ton, down 0.54% from 3,680 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the week.

On April 26, the fuel oil commodity index was 74.13, unchanged from the previous day, down 36.05% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 60.87% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: the domestic fuel oil transaction last week was weak, and the actual transaction price was about 3,500 RMB/ ton.

Industry chain: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, US WTI crude oil was $25.03/ barrel at the beginning of last week, and $16.94 /barrel at the weekend, with a weekly increase or decrease of -32.32%; Brent crude oil was $28.08/ barrel at the beginning of the week, and $24.87/ barrel at the weekend, with a weekly increase or decrease of -11.43%. WTI futures delivery reduced international oil prices, and the "US Iran" relationship was once again strained. OPEC+ and other oil producing countries gradually put production reduction on the agenda. Active production reduction combined with passive production reduction brought a certain boost to the market, and international oil prices fell first and then rose. Domestic shale oil price fluctuated little.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 16th week of 2020 (4.20-4.24), there was one kind of commodity in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, with diesel rising (0.67%). There were 11 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 4 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling were WTI crude oil (-34.08%), Brent crude oil (-11.72%), and DME (-7.75%). This week's average was -4.6%.

Market Forecast

Energy analysts of SunSirs believe that the international crude oil fell sharply last week, the overall demand of the domestic ship fuel market is light, the shipping market is sluggish, the transaction is weak, and the downstream wait-and-see attitude is dominated. It is expected that the market price of fuel oil before May Day will be stable, or around 3,500 RMB/ ton.

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