According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper showed a weak performance and a downward trend in March 2025. On March 27th, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,718 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.83% compared to the average price on March 1st.
In terms of upstream raw materials: In March, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang region first increased and then decreased, and the domestic waste paper price also showed a similar trend. On March 27th, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang Province was 1,458 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.62% compared to the average price on March 1st. In early March, the purchase prices of waste paper from paper mills in various regions returned to an upward trend. As the operating rate of paper mills gradually increased to full capacity, the inventory of waste paper in paper mills decreased significantly. Therefore, paper mills raised the prices of waste paper to increase the amount of goods received. Subsequently, the packaging station actively shipped and the supply of waste paper increased, leading to an increase in the amount of goods received. Some paper mills took advantage of the situation and lowered the purchase price of waste yellow cardboard, causing the market price to fall accordingly. In addition, with the continuous decline in finished paper prices and the strong atmosphere in the air, some paper mills are cautious in their procurement and have continuously lowered their purchase prices, dragging down the market price of waste yellow cardboard.
Supply side: In early March, the production of paper mills in various regions was relatively stable, and the supply of corrugated paper maintained steady growth. But later on, the actual operating rate of some production lines exceeded expectations, the recovery of production accelerated, and the inventory of enterprises increased significantly, gradually increasing market supply pressure. The gradual arrival of imported corrugated paper at the port has also increased the supply pressure on the market, resulting in short-term pressure on the supply market. The increase in new production capacity will further intensify the market competition pattern.
On the demand side: March to August is the traditional off-season for corrugated paper consumption, with slow terminal recovery and insufficient orders from downstream packaging factories. Influenced by the mentality of buying up instead of buying down, packaging factories mainly focus on reducing inventory and purchasing for essential needs, resulting in low enthusiasm for raw paper procurement and weak market trading. Due to the impact of tariffs imposed by the United States, foreign trade orders have weakened, thereby affecting the overall market demand situation.
The paper analyst from SunSirs believes that the current pressure on the supply and demand, as well as the cost, of the corrugated paper market is still relatively high. April is still the traditional off-season in the market, and the expected increase in terminal consumption is limited. Downstream packaging factories have a certain capacity to replenish inventory, but their mentality is cautious, and there is a high possibility of maintaining essential demand in procurement. However, the waste paper market is still in a weak downward trend, with relatively weak support for the market. It is expected that the short-term decline in corrugated paper prices may slow down.
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