According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber spot market has slightly declined since March. As of March 27th, the spot rubber market price in China's natural rubber market was around 16,556 RMB/ton, a decrease of 3.55% from 17,166 RMB/ton at the beginning of the month. The downstream tire production in March has slightly increased compared to the end of February, providing support for the demand for natural rubber; The natural rubber raw material market has slightly fallen from a high level, and the cost of natural rubber still has support; With the gradual transition of natural rubber supply from low production period to high production period at home and abroad, the import volume of natural rubber to ports has increased, and the domestic natural rubber inventory continues to increase slightly, which has a negative impact on the natural rubber market.

At present, foreign natural rubber supply is gradually entering an increasing production period from a low production period. The Yunnan production area in China will be the first to enter a trial cutting period, while production areas such as Hainan, Vietnam, and northeastern Thailand in China will still stop cutting. The current price of natural rubber raw materials is still high, and it is expected to decline in the future. As of March 24th, the price of Thai glue was 68.00 baht/kg, a slight decrease of 3.55% from 70.50 baht/kg on February 26th.

The natural rubber inventory continued to increase slightly in March, which had a bearish impact on the natural rubber market. As of March 23, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 602,300 tons, an increase of 3.06% from 584,400 tons on March 2.

Since March, the overall production of downstream tires has remained stable, with demand facing the urgent support of the natural rubber market. As of March 21st, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 83%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 69% of the load.

The expected supply of raw materials from domestic and foreign production areas is gradually increasing, and the cost of natural rubber is expected to decline in the later period; Downstream production remains stable at a high level, providing essential support for natural rubber demand; However, the inventory at Tianjiao Port remains high and has recently shown a slight increase trend; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will continue to decline slightly in the later period.

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