According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of polyester bottle flakes was about 6,270 RMB/ton at the beginning of March. In the first three weeks, the overall price of polyester bottle flakes showed a continuous downward trend, and by mid March, it further fell to a monthly low of around 6,100 RMB/ton, a decrease of about 2.62%. The intensification of supply-demand contradictions coupled with insufficient cost support is the core driving factor. At the end of the month, there was some positive news on the raw material side, and prices rose narrowly. As of March 28th, the average selling price of PET (polyester bottle flakes) is 6,160 RMB/ton,

In terms of cost, factors such as OPEC+ production increase, US tariff policies, and Iraq's resumption of crude oil exports have led to international oil prices falling below $70 per barrel, weakening the cost support of the polyester industry chain. The PTA processing fee briefly rebounded to a reasonable range of 325 RMB/ton, but the introduction of new production capacity (such as adding 2.15 million tons in 2025) and the expected rebound in imports have suppressed long-term profit margins. The inventory of ethylene glycol at the port has risen to a high of 584,400 tons, indicating insufficient demand growth.

In terms of supply and demand: In 2025, the new production capacity of polyester bottle flakes will be 2.15 million tons. Coupled with the current high inventory in the same period, market concerns about oversupply have intensified. The operating rate of major production enterprises remains at nearly 70%, and the supply continues to increase. However, the demand side has not improved synchronously, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand. Although it is the peak season for textile and clothing production, the release of terminal orders is limited. The raw material inventory of weaving enterprises has dropped to 8.26 days, while the finished product inventory has increased to 23.64 days, indicating a low willingness to replenish inventory.

In response to the current market situation, SunSirs believes that there is a lack of upward driving force for crude oil and raw material prices, with the release of new production capacity and high inventory suppressing price rebound. The contradiction between factory price hikes and downstream price pressures is prominent, and there is no obvious improvement signal on the demand side. Trading deadlock may continue. The actual trend still needs to pay attention to the follow-up equipment, demand situation, and cost support under the traction of crude oil.

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