According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of SunSirs, last week (3.24-28), the PVC spot market reversed its decline and the price rebounded slightly. As of Friday, the average price of SG-5 PVC carbide method in China was 4,930 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.74% during the week.

Supply side: Last week, the PVC spot market atmosphere improved, reversing the decline in the first half of the year. Last week, driven by the futures market, the spot market significantly improved and prices rebounded. The market performance has improved in terms of supply and demand. Last week, the PVC operating rate remained stable. Although some companies that had previously reduced their negative load have taken actions to increase their operating rate, the market transaction volume has significantly improved. This is mainly based on the increase in trading volume and the improvement of market sentiment.

In terms of inventory, there has been a temporary increase in transaction volume in the market recently, and social inventory continues to decrease. However, considering the previously large basic inventory, the current spot supply side remains abundant.

Cost side: Last week, the market price of calcium carbide remained stable, and the market entered a bottoming stage. According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price fluctuation of calcium carbide has been zero since March. Although there is no positive news on the cost side, the increase in downstream procurement volume has a certain stimulating effect, and the upstream and downstream linkage has led to a rebound trend in PVC prices. As of now, the quotation range for PVC SG5 electric aggregate in China is mostly around 4,900-4,950 RMB/ton.

The PVC analyst from SunSirs believes that PVC supply is relatively abundant in the short term, and the operating rate of manufacturers this week is generally higher than at the beginning of the month. Although enterprise inventory continues to decrease, the process is slow. The rebound of short-term futures market is mainly due to the improvement of market sentiment, and the lack of sustained improvement momentum in PVC fundamentals. As downstream procurement returns to rationality, the positive support effect is not significant. We should be cautious about the magnitude of the increase.

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