The BR market in March first fell and then rose, with an overall decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of March 28th, the BR market price in East China was 13,920 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.21% from 14,090 RMB/ton at the beginning of March, and the low point during the cycle was 13,830 RMB/ton. The price of raw material butadiene has slightly fallen, and the cost center of BR has shifted downwards; The production of BR has slightly increased compared to the end of February, and the pressure on the supply side has slightly increased; In March, downstream tires started operating at a high level, providing strong support for the demand for BR. As of March 28th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze BR in East China were 13,800-14,100 RMB/ton.

Since March, the price of butadiene has significantly decreased, and the cost center of BR has shifted downwards. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of March 28th, the price of butadiene was 11,000 RMB/ton, a decrease of 4.03% from 11,462 RMB/ton at the beginning of March.

The construction of domestic BR plants in March showed a slight increase compared to February, with an overall construction rate of around 69%. At present, Zhejiang Chuanhua's 150,000 tons/year high Shun BR plant will be shut down for maintenance for 25 days starting from March 26th. In addition, Shandong Yihua's 100,000 tons/year Shun BR plant has maintenance plans in the later stage, and the supply of Shun BR is expected to decrease.

Demand side: Downstream tire production is basically stable, mainly supporting the rigid demand of the BR market. As of March 21st, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 83%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 69% of the load.

From a fundamental perspective, analysts from SunSirs believe that in the short term, the price of butadiene will consolidate weakly, and the cost support of BR will continue to be weak; The temporary stability of downstream construction provides some support for BR. With some equipment maintenance plans in the later stage, the supply pressure of BR is expected to slightly decrease. Overall, it is expected that the BR market will consolidate in the later stage.

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