The current domestic refined oil price adjustment window opened at 24:00 on April 2. The retail price of refined oil is about to increase. In 2025, the retail price of refined oil has experienced two upward adjustments, three downward adjustments, and one grounding. During this cycle, the trend of crude oil market has risen, and the rate of change of crude oil is expanding. The zero selling price of refined oil in 2025 will usher in the "third" upward adjustment.

Entering this pricing cycle, the international oil price trend has risen. As of the 1st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $71.02 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.49 per barrel. During this cycle, the trend of crude oil prices has risen. On the one hand, the United States is considering strengthening sanctions against Iran and Russia, which has led to an upward trend in the crude oil market; On the other hand, OPEC+oil producing countries have agreed to implement compensatory production cuts according to the latest plan, which will continue until June 2026. This news has boosted the crude oil market, and the trend of the crude oil market has risen due to the impact. As of the 1st, the change rate of crude oil varieties on the 10th working day was 5.87%, corresponding to an increase of 230 RMB/ton for domestic gasoline and 220 RMB/ton for diesel, equivalent to an increase of 92# 0.18, 95# 0.19, and 0# 0.19 RMB per liter.

In terms of gasoline, the operating rate of local refineries has recently increased. The average operating rate of Shandong refineries has risen to around 53%, and the operating rate of major refineries nationwide is around 82%. The supply of refined oil products from local refineries has also increased. Recently, residents' spring outings and other activities have had a certain impact on gasoline terminal consumption. With the support of the Qingming Festival holiday, gasoline terminal consumption has increased. Residents mainly engage in daily short distance travel, and the situation of intermediaries replenishing inventory has increased. However, the continuous penetration of new energy vehicles has had a certain impact on gasoline demand. Overall, the trend of the gasoline market has risen.

In terms of diesel: Recently, there has been an increase in the supply side of the diesel market. In terms of demand, orders for diesel fuel for industrial and mining infrastructure as well as logistics have rebounded, and the pace of vehicle sales has accelerated. The demand for diesel has also improved. In addition, the rise in crude oil prices has boosted the diesel market, supported by favorable factors, resulting in a recent upward trend in diesel prices.

Currently, the crude oil market is mixed with bearish factors, and geopolitical instability continues to affect the market. However, the United States has imposed tariffs on various countries to suppress demand in the crude oil market, resulting in short-term fluctuations in crude oil prices. Domestically, the short-term refinery operating rate has increased, the supply of refined oil has increased, and the demand for gasoline is still acceptable. With downstream concentrated replenishment on dips, refinery inventory pressure has been released, and gasoline market prices have risen; Diesel is supported by the favorable cost of crude oil, and with the increase in demand for diesel as temperatures rise in the later stage, the diesel market may rise.

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