Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price of soda ash first rose and then fell in March. At the beginning of the month, the average market price of light soda ash was 1,498 RMB/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was around 1,470 RMB/ton. The price decreased by 28 RMB/ton during the month, with an overall decline of 1.87%. On March 31, 2025, there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 2 products that rose or fell in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities experiencing a decline are caustic soda (-0.90%), baking soda (-0.79%), and light soda ash (-0.68%). The average increase or decrease was -0.5%.

Analysis review

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the market for soda ash this month first fell and then rose. With the recovery of maintenance equipment within the month, the utilization rate of soda ash production capacity continued to increase, and the market supply of goods was sufficient. The sales pressure of spot soda ash plants has increased, while the overall downstream glass market was weak, and the consumption of inventory was slow. The demand for soda ash was average, and the overall soda ash price was weak and downward.

As of March 31, 2025, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China was around 1,330-1,500 RMB/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in Central China was around 1,300-1,500 RMB/ton; The mainstream market price of light soda ash in North China was around 1,450-1,570 RMB/ton.

On the demand side: According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the price trend of glass this month first fell and then rose. The average market price of glass at the beginning of the month was 15.62 RMB/square meter, and the average market price at the end of the month was 15.21 RMB/square meter, a decrease of 2.62%. The utilization rate of glass market production capacity has increased within the month, with sufficient spot supply and weak downstream market demand. Market trading was limited, and glass destocking was average, resulting in a weak price trend.

On April 1st, the SunSirs' soda ash to glass commodity price index was 82.28 points, a decrease of 0.56 points from the prevoius day, a decrease of 26.78% from the highest point of 112.37 points during the cycle (October 6, 2023), and an increase of 11.64% from the lowest point of 73.70 points on February 16, 2025. (Note: Cycle refers to January 1, 2012 to present)

Market outlook

According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, the load of some domestic soda ash plants has increased, the utilization rate of production capacity was high, and the mentality of spot alkali factories was bearish. Recently, the price of light soda ash has weakened and fallen, and downstream demand for soda ash was weak. There was a lack of favorable market conditions, and it is expected that soda ash prices will operate weakly in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

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