Price trend

Last week (4.7-11), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong was sluggish, with prices fluctuating and falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 5.93%.

Analysis review

The main reason was that the maintenance equipment has resumed work one after another, and the supply side has shown loose performance. Coupled with the increase in urea to ammonia conversion by manufacturers, the supply has significantly increased, and the rise in ammonia volume has dragged down ammonia prices. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, some mainstream large factories in Shandong generally lowered their prices by 200-300 RMB/ton. Distributors mainly underreported shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm was not high, agricultural demand was still in the off-season, industrial demand remained rigid, and the overall demand side was bearish. As of April 11th, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region was between 2,600-2,800 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

Recently, the procurement of agricultural demand has slowed down, and industrial demand has followed suit with sufficient supply. However, the supply pressure may partially ease in the later stage. On the one hand, the main production areas in the north have been fluctuating or tightening supply due to low prices. From the demand side, agricultural demand may be affected by inventory consumption, and there is room for improvement in later orders, and industrial demand follows suit as needed. Taking all factors into consideration, liquid ammonia may stop falling next week, with price range fluctuations being the main trend.

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