According to the commodity market analysis system of Sino-Sino, this week, PET (polyester bottle flakes) was under multiple pressures such as cost negatives, and the overall price showed a sharp decline. Data as of April 11 showed that the average sales price of PET (polyester bottle flakes) was 5,655 RMB/ton.

Cost: OPEC+ production increase, US tariff policy and Iraq's resumption of crude oil exports have put pressure on international oil prices. Brent crude oil fell below the key support level of US$70/barrel, weakening the cost support of the polyester industry chain. PTA and ethylene glycol prices weakened. From April 1 to 11, PTA prices fell from 4,910 RMB/ton to 4,489 RMB/ton, a drop of 8.57%, and ethylene glycol also fell by more than 3%. In addition, port inventories climbed to a high of 584,400 tons, and the operating rate of coal-to-gas units remained above 70%. The loose supply pattern is difficult to change, and price rebounds are limited.

Supply and demand: In 2025, the new production capacity of polyester bottle chips will be 2.15 million tons. Combined with the current high inventory level during the same period, the market's concerns about oversupply have intensified. The operating rate of major production enterprises remains at 74.48%, and the supply continues to increase, while the demand side has not improved synchronously, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand. In terms of exports, due to the slowdown in global economic growth and restrictions on environmental protection policies, the increase in exports is not enough to offset domestic supply pressure.

In response to the current market situation, SunSirs believes that the core logic behind the sharp drop in the price of polyester bottle chips this week lies in the multiple pressures of cost collapse, oversupply and weak demand. In the short term, the market price of PET may adjust with the cost side, and the actual trend still needs to pay attention to subsequent devices, demand conditions, and cost support driven by crude oil.

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