Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic PTA spot market showed a weak trend this week. As of April 11th, the average market price in East China was 4,338 RMB/ton, a decrease of 8.14% from the beginning of the week.

Analysis review

The escalation of trade frictions has led to a significant drop in crude oil prices, but with Trump temporarily suspending tariffs on some countries, market panic has eased and crude oil prices have rebounded from oversold levels. As of April 10th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 60.07 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 63.33 US dollarsper barrel. The market sentiment was cautious, and oil prices may fluctuate significantly in the short term. The domestic load of PX has dropped to around 74%, and multiple units are undergoing load reduction or maintenance. The basic structure of domestic PX supply and demand was still acceptable, but the escalation of US tariff policies may trigger concerns about a global economic slowdown, and the cost side will be affected to some extent.

In terms of self supply, there are still too many follow-up maintenance plans. Some domestic facilities have maintenance plans from April to June, which has reduced the pressure on supply.

Downstream polyester maintained a high load of nearly 90%, but the tariff dispute continued to ferment, making it difficult to find sustained positive support. Under the collapse of costs, transactions have been sluggish, and the enthusiasm for stocking up raw materials was not high. Many of them were purchased and used as needed. Especially in terms of foreign trade orders, inquiries have basically stagnated, and the market was in a wait-and-see state in many places. Actual orders were issued sporadically, and there is no significant short-term positive boost for domestic and foreign trade.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that there was an expectation of reduced PTA supply and high downstream polyester load. Tariff disturbances still existed, terminal inventory digestion and export resistance intensified, and demand remains weak in the future. It is expected that PTA prices will remain weak.

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