According to the latest monitoring data of SunSirs, the average factory price of domestic refined naphtha as of April 30 was 4,262.50 RMB/ ton, down 18.96% from 5,260.00 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the month, and the price of refined naphtha fell sharply in April.

On April 30, the naphtha commodity index was 52.61, unchanged from the previous day, 48.73% lower than 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and 24.55% higher than 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: the price of ground refined naphtha fell sharply last month. At present, the mainstream price of hydrogenated naphtha is about 4,100-4,300 RMB/ ton.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil was $20.48/ barrel at the beginning of April, and $15.35/ barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of -25.05%; Brent crude oil was $26.35/ barrel at the beginning of April, and $24.23/ barrel at the end of the month, with a monthly increase or decrease of -8.05%. At the beginning of the month, the output reduction of OPEC+ meeting was lower than the market expectation, and the crude oil demand in April was expected to decline by more than 20 million barrels/ day, or even 30 million barrels/ day; the delivery oil price of WTI futures fell to a negative value in the last ten days, and the future market mentality was pessimistic. Downstream: the demand for terminal ethylene and aromatics industry chain was limited; previously, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene continued to decline, and the domestic PX operating rate was about 70%, and the domestic PX market price at the end of the month was 4,000 RMB/ ton. PX downstream weaving enterprises lacked of foreign trade orders, domestic demand had not fully recovered, and the demand was weak. In the near future, the market price of p-xylene may maintain a low level.

Matket Forecast

According to the energy analysts of SunSirs, the sharp drop in international crude oil price has depressed the energy market. At present, the ground refining market has a high operating rate and sufficient naphtha supply, with limited downstream demand near the end of the month. Low price crude oil is about to flow into the market in the near future, with strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream and cautious trading. It is expected that the price of refined naphtha in May will continue to decline, with the average price range of 4,000-4,300 RMB/ ton.

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