According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper has slightly declined this week. On April 17, 2025, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,684 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.3% compared to the average price on April 13.

In terms of upstream raw materials, the price of waste paper in Zhejiang region has slightly increased this week, while the price of waste paper in domestic paper mills has fluctuated. On April 17, 2025, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow board paper in Zhejiang region was 1,488 RMB/ton, an increase of 0.4% compared to the average price on April 13. The current price of waste paper is mostly adjusted according to the demand of paper mills, and coupled with the recent weather impact, the southern rainy season will have a certain adverse effect on waste paper storage, which may accelerate the circulation speed of waste paper. The dry and rainy weather in the north will also limit the hoarding sentiment of packaging stations, promoting a slight increase in the supply of waste paper.

On the supply side: Currently, most paper mills have high inventory levels. In order to alleviate inventory pressure, paper mills may reduce their operating load rate to reduce supply pressure. The decline in corrugated paper prices has led to most paper mills approaching their break even point, and some may choose to shut down for maintenance to cope with operating losses.

On the demand side: The combination of seasonal off-season and tariff trade frictions has led to lower than expected demand growth and increased uncertainty in export orders. Downstream packaging companies adopt a cautious attitude towards increasing demand in the later stage and often adopt a strategy of on-demand procurement. The upcoming May Day holiday will increase the expectation of downstream packaging companies shutting down, or reduce the consumption of corrugated paper.

The paper analyst of SunSirs believes that the current corrugated paper market is affected by the dual pressure of seasonal off-season factors and tariff trade frictions, and the supply-demand imbalance is difficult to improve. It is expected that the price of corrugated paper will remain weakly stable in the short term.

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