Price trend

Last week (4.14-18), domestic liquid ammonia rose, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was 0.73%. The main reason was that, against the backdrop of stable downstream demand, some equipment maintenance has not yet resumed, and the supply pressure has slightly eased. As of April 18th, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region was between 2,600-2,800 RMB/ton.

Analysis review

From the supply side, last week, the supply had been basically stable, and the supply pressure had slightly eased. The recovery of the operating rate of the main production areas in the north was limited. Some devices were still under maintenance last week, resulting in a decrease in supply. In addition, there was not much supply pressure in Hebei, Anhui, and the two lakes regions. During the week, sporadic price increases were the main trend, while prices stabilized over the weekend, with manufacturers raising prices within 50 RMB/ton last week. The market showed a basic balance between supply and demand.

From the demand side, there was not much improvement in downstream demand, with a decrease in the operating rate of compound fertilizers and a sustained demand for urea; In terms of agriculture, the dry weather in the southwest region has slightly delayed the demand for agricultural procurement, coupled with the decline in industrial demand, leading to a decrease in urea prices. According to the commodity analysis system of SunSirs, urea prices fell by 2.34% last week, and the terminal receiving capacity was not high, so many purchases were made at low prices.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that the slight increase in liquid ammonia prices last week was mainly due to favorable conditions from the supply side. However, with the expectation of resuming work on northern maintenance facilities nest week, the supply side is facing pressure, and there is a risk of a correction in liquid ammonia prices.

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