According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the domestic natural rubber spot market has been weak and volatile recently (4.10-4.22). As of April 22, the spot rubber market in China was around 14,350 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.70% from 14,598 RMB/ton on the 10th. The high point during the cycle was 14,735 RMB/ton, and the low point was 14,310 RMB/ton. Currently, influenced by international trade news, the atmosphere in the domestic rubber market is relatively weak. The price of raw materials has slightly decreased; Domestic Tianjiao Port inventory has slightly decreased compared to the previous period, but overall remains at a high level; The downstream construction is basically stable; The Shanghai rubber market is weak and volatile, while the natural rubber spot market is fluctuating and adjusting.

In the second quarter, the overseas main production areas are expected to gradually increase production volume, coupled with the current good weather and high price stimulation, rubber farmers are cutting rubber smoothly, and rubber prices are difficult to stabilize at high levels; At the same time, Yunnan Province in China has conducted trial cutting, and it is expected that the supply of rubber raw materials at home and abroad will increase, leading to a decrease in the price of natural rubber raw materials. As of April 22, the price of Thai glue was 56.20 baht/kg, slightly lower than the 57.50 baht/kg on April 10.

Natural rubber inventory has slightly decreased, but overall it remains at a high level. As of April 20, 2025, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 612,500 tons, a decrease of 7,000 tons or 1.08% compared to the previous period.

Supply and demand side: Downstream tire production is generally stable, but the international trade situation has an impact, resulting in a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the natural rubber market and light inquiries. As of April 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 78%; The construction of all steel tires by tire enterprises in Shandong region has slightly increased to around 65% of the load.

When domestic and international raw material prices fall from high levels, coupled with the unclear international trade situation and weak downstream inquiries, the support for natural rubber will weaken, and the inventory of Tianjiao Port will still be at a high level; Overall, it is expected that the natural rubber market will continue its weak consolidation trend in the later stage.

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