According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the price of corrugated paper will continue to show a weak downward trend in April 2025. On April 27th, the average ex factory price of 140g corrugated paper was 2,676 RMB/ton, a decrease of 1.55% compared to the average price on April 1st.
In terms of upstream raw materials, the prices of wastepaper in Zhejiang Province fluctuated in April, and domestic wastepaper prices also fluctuated. On April 27th, the average purchase price of A-grade waste yellow cardboard in Zhejiang Province was 1,476 RMB/ton, an increase of 1.37% compared to the average price on April 1st. At the beginning of April, the inventory of wastepaper in paper mills slightly loosened and decreased, and many paper mills in various places raised the price of wastepaper to improve the arrival of wastepaper. In addition, the recycling of wastepaper is in the off-season, and the shipping intention of packaging stations is flat. Under the situation of weak supply and strong demand, the price increase is more significant. As the rainy season approaches after the Qingming Festival, the delivery speed of packaging stations accelerates, resulting in an increase in the amount of wastepaper received and a decrease in the purchase price of wastepaper. Subsequently, the price of wastepaper was adjusted according to the demand of paper mills, with weak demand for finished paper near the end of the month, putting pressure on paper companies' profits, and reducing their intention to purchase waste yellow cardboard.
On the supply side: In April, the inventory of corrugated paper mills gradually rose to a high level, increasing the supply pressure on the market and leading to sustained supply pressure. Due to the increasing price difference between domestic and foreign raw paper, imported paper has a clear advantage in the domestic market, and some packaging companies have increased their import enthusiasm, resulting in an increase in the amount of imported paper arriving at the port after the holiday, further increasing the supply pressure on the market. Although some paper mills subsequently issued maintenance and shutdown notices, which would slightly reduce the supply of corrugated paper, the overall change in output was limited due to the fact that many large factories maintained normal production.
On the demand side: April is still the traditional off-season in the market, and market demand continues to be sluggish. The expected increase in terminal consumption is limited, and downstream packaging factories need to replenish their inventory as needed. However, their mentality is cautious, and the purchase of raw paper remains mainly for essential needs. In addition, the trade friction between China and the United States has led to lower than expected demand growth and increased uncertainty in export orders. Downstream packaging companies adopt a cautious attitude towards increasing demand in the later stage and often adopt a strategy of on-demand procurement. The upcoming May Day holiday will increase the expectation of downstream packaging companies shutting down, or reduce the consumption of corrugated paper.
SunSirs paper analysts believe that the current corrugated paper market is affected by seasonal off-season factors, and the supply-demand imbalance is difficult to improve. The tariff trade between China and the United States has exerted certain pressure on domestic commodity exports, leading to a weakened demand for packaging paper, pressure on paper companies' profits, and pressure to reduce inventory of finished paper. It is expected that the price of corrugated paper will be under pressure in the short term.
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