After a significant drop in aluminum prices in April, then began to stabilize 

After a significant drop in aluminum prices in April, they began to stabilize. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, as of April 27, 2025, the average price of aluminum ingots in the East China market in China was 20,083.33 RMB/ton, a decrease of 2.40% from the market average price of 20,576.67 RMB/ton on April 1; Compared to the market average price of 1,940 RMB/ton on April 9th, it has increased by 2.78%.

Analysis review

1. Macro influencing factors declined after price realization

After the impact factors of tariffs have been reflected in prices, their influence has weakened, and aluminum ingot prices have begun to return to fundamental considerations.

2. Cost side benefits were fully utilized, and cost side support was recovering

Since April 2025, the Chinese alumina market has experienced a production reduction of up to 6.9 million tons due to frequent maintenance of roasting furnaces and some capacity reductions, resulting in a stabilization of alumina prices. In the early stage, due to the decrease in the cost of electrolytic aluminum, the cost support was relatively weak. Recently, with the depletion of cost side benefits, the negative feedback on the cost side of electrolytic aluminum has subsided.

3. High resilience on the demand side

The overall demand for aluminum downstream was supported. Although the operating rates of some downstream industries such as construction aluminum profiles have declined, the demand for aluminum for terminal power grid construction and photovoltaics was strong. Stimulated by the "trade in" policy and subsidies for new energy vehicles, the home appliance and automotive industries have maintained a certain market prosperity. The demand for aluminum plates, strips, foils and other fields has performed well, while the demand for air conditioning foils and battery foils was strong.

4. The supply side was relatively stable

The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained relatively stable in April, with 2.8 million tons of newly built capacity in Hebei and Guangxi about to be put into use, but still leaving a significant gap. Theoretically, starting from May, there will be a monthly gap of 100,000 tons.

5. The aluminum ingots de-stocking was well

According to inventory data, as of April 24th, the total inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the mainstream domestic market was 664,000 tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons from the total social inventory of 774,000 tons at the beginning of the month (4.3).

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