Price trend

On May 7, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 120.00, unchanged from the former day, down 4.20% from 125.26 (2020-03-15), the highest point in the cycle, and up 55.10% from 77.37, the lowest point on October 31, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-02-01 to now).

Analysis review   

Product: On the 8th, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price went up. The domestic average price was 2330 RMB/ton. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started to operate normally, and the operation of the on-site equipment was stable recently. Ammonium nitrate manufacturers' shipments have improved, and manufacturers report that there is no recent inventory backlog and ammonium nitrate prices have risen. Downstream on-demand procurement, coupled with the impact of environmental protection and control, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started to operate normally, and the price trend in the venue rose. As of now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 2,200-2,400 RMB/ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 2,000-2,400 RMB/ton, and the price in Hebei is 2,500-2,700 RMB/ton. Affected by the improvement in shipments, downstream demand improved, and the demand for ammonium nitrate increased, and the market price of ammonium nitrate increased.

Industrial chain: The upstream domestic nitric acid market price trend is declining, and mainstream manufacturers in Jiangsu offer 1,300 RMB/ton. The quotations of mainstream manufacturers in Anhui are around 1,350 RMB/ton. Shandong manufacturers quoted around 1,700 RMB/ton, and the price trend declined. The shipment of nitric acid is general, and the demand for nitro compound fertilizers has increased compared with before. As the demand for ammonium nitrate increased, the market price of ammonium nitrate increased; the domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upper reaches fluctuated at a high level, while the domestic liquid ammonia market remained at a high level. The trend of some enterprises in the northern region was temporarily stable. The price of raw materials in the upper reaches was temporarily stable, which brought a certain positive support to the price of domestic ammonium nitrate. However, due to the improvement of the demand in the lower reaches, the commodity market of ammonium nitrate products was getting better, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market was rising.

Market outlook

Analysts of ammonium nitrate of SunSirs believe that the price of the upstream raw material nitric acid market has not changed recently, but the downstream demand has improved. It is expected that the market price of ammonium nitrate will increase slightly in the later period.

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