Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of SunSirs, the overall market situation of domestic polyester staple fiber in April showed weakness, with a significant decline at the beginning of the month, followed by stabilization. As of April 29th, the average market price of domestic polyester staple fiber (1.4D * 38mm) was 6,359 RMB/ton, a decrease of 5.87% from the beginning of the month.

Analysis review

The international crude oil market experienced significant fluctuations in April due to the impact of tariff trade. At the beginning of the month, the escalation of trade frictions led to a significant drop in crude oil prices. However, in mid month, as market concerns about the new US tariff policies eased, especially with the US showing a more relaxed attitude towards China in the trade war, international crude oil prices rose narrowly. On April 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 62.05 US dollars per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was 65.86 naphthaleneper barrel.

PTA followed the fluctuation of crude oil prices and showed a "V" - shaped trend of first falling and then rising in April. As of April 28th, the average price of PTA market in East China was 4565 RMB/ton, a decrease of 7.03% from the beginning of the month. On the supply side, from April to June, there were many PTA planned maintenance units, and the circulation of spot goods gradually tightened. Among them, Jiatong Energy's 2 million tons/year PTA unit and Hengli Huizhou's 2 # 2.5 million tons/year unit were both scheduled for maintenance at the end of April, and the current industry operating rate is around 76%. In addition, in terms of new production capacity, Honggang Petrochemical's 3 # 2.5 million ton unit was planned to be put into operation in mid June.

In terms of demand, under the current atmosphere of easing tariffs, some yarn factories have slightly increased their replenishment, but trade frictions were still unstable, and negative feedback from terminal weaving was heating up. The demand in the terminal consumer market was weak, and downstream fields such as clothing and home textiles continued to shrink in orders, with limited order volume and insufficient demand momentum. The weaving operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions continued to decrease to around 60%, and it is expected that some weaving operations will be suspended during the May Day holiday, further reducing the operating rate.

Market outlook

SunSirs’ analysts believe that in the future, the cost side still needs to pay attention to the trend of oil prices. Multiple sets of PTA facilities in China have been shut down one after another, and the overall social inventory continues to decrease. However, due to weak demand, PTA prices lack sustained driving force. Before the holiday, the purchasing enthusiasm of yarn factories and traders was limited, and the inventory pressure of textile enterprises has increased. The market is still dominated by individual and small orders, with more on-demand procurement and production. Due to the lack of significant positive factors, it is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will continue to adjust at a low level in May.

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