- Price Trend
As of September 20, the average price of mainstream hydrotreated naphtha in China was 6,247.50 RMB/ton, up 1.54% from 6,152.50 RMB/ton at the beginning of last week. The actual transaction price of hydrotreated naphtha in China was about 6,300 RMB/ton.
The naphtha commodity index on September 20 was 77.11, unchanged from the day before, down 24.86% from the peak of 102.62 points in the cycle (2012-09-24), and up 82.55% from the low of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-01 to date)
- Analysis of Influencing Factors
Products: Affected by the Saudi Arabian incident, the price of refined naphtha rose sharply at the beginning of last week, and trading was basically stable.
Industry Chain: Upstream: According to the monitoring of SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil was $54.85 per barrel at the beginning of the week and $58.13 per barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase and decrease of 5.98%; Brent crude oil was $60.22 per barrel at the beginning of the week and $64.40 per barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase and decrease of 6.94%. Saudi Arabia's oil equipment was attacked the week before and the market rose in panic. Since the attack, the situation has stabilized. Saudi Arabia has not reduced its oil exports, and American inventories have increased. International oil prices have soared and fallen. Downstream: Downstream suppliers stock up on demand. According to SunSirs, affected by the upstream crude oil rise and low port inventory, the domestic toluene market had been in a good general trend lasts week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 6,500-6,550 RMB/ton. The xylene market has been in good shape last week, and the mainstream price in East China was around 6,500-6,550 RMB/ton. The domestic market price trend of p-xylene was stable last week. The domestic PX start-up rate maintained more than 70%, and the weekend average price was 6,600 RMB/ton. Affected by the Saudi Arabian incident, the price of pure benzene rose sharply at the beginning of last week, which led to a bullish domestic market. At present, the domestic price of pure benzene is between 5,800 and 5,900 RMB/ton.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were eleven kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector in the 37th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20). Among them, there were three kinds of commodities rising more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The first three commodities rising were liquefied gas (7.87%), Brent crude oil (6.94%) and WTI crude oil (5.98%). There was only one kind of commodities falling in the ring ratio, and the product was diesel oil (-0.77%). This week's average rise and fall was 1.98%.
- Market Forecast
SunSirs’ Energy analysts believe that last week's rise in international oil prices has supported naphtha, with some just in need of stock to support the naphtha market as the National Day holiday approaches. It is expected that the price of hydro naphtha will be stable in the near future, with an average price range of 6,200-6,400 RMB/ton.
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