As of May 9, the average ex-factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 4,200 RMB/ ton, which is 0.88% lower than 4,237.50 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the week. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha was about 4,200 RMB/ ton.
On May 9, the naphtha commodity index was 51.84, unchanged from the previous day, down 49.48% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 22.73% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)
Analysis of Influencing Factors
Product: the price of refined naphtha fell slightly last week, and the inventory was sufficient.
Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, WTI crude oil in the United States was $24.56/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $26.17/ barrel at the weekend, up or down 6.56%; Brent crude oil was $30.97/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $30.97/ barrel at the weekend, up or down 0. The production reduction agreement reached by OPEC+ came into effect. With the decrease of crude oil production in the United States, the demand of crude oil market improved, and the international crude oil price rebounded after falling. Downstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic toluene market price rebounded and rose last week. As of last Friday, the domestic average price was about 3,500 RMB/ ton, 5.74% higher than that of last week. The domestic xylene market price rebounded and rose. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3,560 RMB/ ton, 6.27% higher than that of last week. Under the support of device maintenance and demand, the supply and demand margin of PX in Asia has improved, but under the pressure of high inventory, the price is still suppressed, the overall cost end support is limited, and the market price is about 4,000 RMB/ ton.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 18th week of 2020 (5.4-5.8), there were 9 commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall in the energy sector, including 4 commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were WTI crude oil (21.78%), Brent crude oil (8.31%) and LPG (8.08%). There wwere 5 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with gasoline (-3.33%), diesel (-1.52%) and naphtha (-1.47%) as the top three products. Last week's average was up or down 3.03%.
Market Forecast
According to energy analysts of SunSirs, last week's refined naphtha fell slightly, with sufficient inventory and higher downstream purchasing sentiment. It is expected that the price of refined naphtha and hydrogenation will rise slightly in the near future, with the average price range of 4,100-4,400 RMB/ ton.
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