As of May 15, the average ex-factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 4192.50 RMB/ ton, which was 0.47% lower than 4212.50 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the week. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha was about 4,200 RMB/ ton.

On May 15, the naphtha commodity index was 51.74, unchanged from the previous day, down 49.58% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 22.49% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: the price of refined naphtha fell slightly last week, and the inventory was sufficient.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, WTI crude oil in the United States was $26.17/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $27.88/ barrel at the weekend, up or down 6.53%; Brent crude oil was $30.97/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $31.13/ barrel at the weekend, up or down 0.52%. Last week, the price of international crude oil fluctuated, OPEC's production reduction countries frequently made optimistic comments on deepening the production reduction, and Saudi Arabia also announced that it would reduce production by an additional 1 million barrels/ day in June. However, the weak demand of international crude oil has not been resolved, and the market inventory is still high. Downstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic toluene market fluctuated narrowly last week. As of last Friday, the average domestic price was about 3,410 RMB/ ton, down from last week 2.57%. The domestic xylene market price fluctuated slightly last week. As of last Friday, the domestic average price was about 3,430 RMB/ ton, down from the previous week 3.65%. In PX market, the price of domestic Sinopec's enterprises last week was about 4,000 RMB/ ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 19th week of 2020 (5.11-5.15), there were 7 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were WTI crude oil (6.53%), petroleum coke (3.23%) and thermal coal (2.97%). There were 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling were LNG (-3.96%), LPG (-3.33%) and coking coal (-3.24%). This week's average was -0.31%.

Market Forecast

According to energy analysts of SunSirs, the naphtha refining industry fell slightly last week, with sufficient inventory. The downstream just purchased by needs. It is expected that the price of naphtha refining and hydrogenation will rise slightly in the near future, with the average price range of 4,100-4,400 RMB/ ton.

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