The price of refined petroleum coke rose last week (5.11-5.15). According to the data of SunSirs, the average mainstream price of petroleum coke products of local refineries was 1,120 RMB/ ton at the beginning of last week, 1,085 RMB/ ton at the end of last week, up 35 RMB/ ton in the week, and down 3.23% in the week.
On May 15, the petroleum coke commodity index was 87.11, up 1.36 points from the previous day, down 44.01% from 155.59 (January 25, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 30.23% from 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-30 to now)
Analysis of Influencing Factors
Product: last week, the overall delivery of refined petroleum coke was good, and the price rose.
Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, WTI crude oil in the United States was $26.17/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $27.88/ barrel at the weekend, up or down 6.53%; Brent crude oil was $30.97/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $31.13/ barrel at the weekend, up or down 0.52%. Last week, the price of international crude oil fluctuated, OPEC's production reduction countries frequently made optimistic comments on deepening the production reduction, and Saudi Arabia also announced that it would reduce production by an additional 1 million barrels/ day in June. However, the weak demand of international crude oil has not been resolved, and the market inventory is still high. Downstream: previously, calcined coke and carbon enterprises have delivered well. Last week, the price of electrolytic aluminum fell first and then rose. According to the data of SunSirs, the average price of domestic aluminum ingot Market as of May 15 was 13,036.67 RMB/ ton.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 19th week of 2020 (5.11-5.15), there were 7 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were WTI crude oil (6.53%), petroleum coke (3.23%) and thermal coal (2.97%). There were 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling were LNG (-3.96%), LPG (-3.33%) and coking coal (-3.24%). This week's average was -0.31%.
Market Forecast
According to petroleum coke analysts of SunSirs, previously, the refined petroleum coke and its downstream shipments are good, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is high. It is expected that the price of refined petroleum coke will rise slightly in the near future, and the price range may be around 1,050-1,150 RMB/ ton.
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