As of May 15, the average selling price of domestic fuel oil was 3,660 RMB/ ton, compared with that at the beginning of the week 3,650 RMB/ ton, up 0.27%.

On May 15, the fuel oil commodity index was 74.13, up 0.21 points from yesterday, down 36.05% from the highest point 115.91 in the cycle (October 17, 2018), and up 60.87% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: the domestic fuel oil transaction last week was light, and the actual transaction price was about 3,600 RMB/ ton.

Industry chain: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, WTI crude oil in the United States was $26.17/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $27.88/ barrel at the weekend, up or down 6.53%; Brent crude oil was $30.97/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $31.13/ barrel at the weekend, up or down 0.52%. Last week, the price of international crude oil fluctuated, OPEC's production reduction countries frequently made optimistic comments on deepening the production reduction, and Saudi Arabia also announced that it would reduce production by an additional 1 million barrels/ day in June. However, the weak demand of international crude oil has not been resolved, and the market inventory is still high.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 19th week of 2020 (5.11-5.15), there were 7 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities were WTI crude oil (6.53%), petroleum coke (3.23%) and thermal coal (2.97%). There were 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling were LNG (-3.96%), LPG (-3.33%) and coking coal (-3.24%). This week's average was -0.31%.

Market Forecast

Energy analysts of SunSirs believe that the overall demand of domestic ship fuel market is light, the transaction is weak, the downstream is mainly waiting, and the shipping market is sluggish. It is expected that the fuel oil market price will stabilize in the near future, or around 3,600 RMB/ ton.

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