1. The price trend
According to SunSirs price monitoring, the price of silicon-manganese alloy fell slightly this week, compared with last week by 100 yuan / ton. Currently, the specifications of manganese-silicon Ningxia are FeMN68Si18, and the ex-factory price is around 6950 yuan / ton.
This week, as the bidding of steel mills came to an end in May, the overall transaction situation was calmed down, the market inquiry atmosphere was slightly general, the enthusiasm for factory shipments increased, the price of manganese ore was slightly adjusted, and the futures performance was quite general. The silicon alloy market is running smoothly.
2. Analysis of influencing factors
Hegang Group's tender price for manganese silicon in June
Hesteel Group announced the June pricing: 7400 yuan / ton, the first inquiry price: 7300 yuan / ton, (May purchase price: 7500 yuan / ton, June 2019 purchase price: 7600 yuan / ton)
Hegang Group's silicon manganese production in June: 27,000 tons, an increase of 970 tons compared with 26,030 tons in May 2020. Among them, 8300 tons of Xuangang, 5600 tons of Chenggang, 4800 tons of Tangshan, 4800 tons of Handan, 2800 tons of Wugang, 400 tons of Tangshan stainless steel, 300 tons of stone steel.
Jiangsu Shagang ’s June 6517 silicon manganese tender price was 7300 yuan / ton including tax into the factory.
UMK company's quotation of Huamanganese ore lowered in July
The downstream bidding started, and the manganese ore market entered a new round of wait-and-see. The destocking rate of high-priced manganese ore in May slowed down compared with the previous period, but the recent epidemic situation in South Africa has not shown signs of improvement, and short-term capacity is difficult to recover. The Gabon Brazil epidemic has intensified, and the manganese ore market has been actively inquiring for procurement. However, affected by the bidding pricing, the manganese ore mining has been limited, and the buyers and buyers have reached a stalemate.
The price of manganese ore has slightly loosened this week. At the current price of 45 Australian dollars, the northern port is at 54-56 yuan / ton degree, and the southern port is 53-55 yuan / ton degree; RMB 54 / ton degree; RMB 43-55 yuan / ton degree in North Port of 43 Australian seeds, RMB 50-52 / ton degree in South Port; RMB 53-55 yuan / ton in North Port of 45 Gabon block, RMB 51-53 / ton in North Port Degrees; 37 South Africa semi-carbonated northern port 52-53 yuan / ton degree, southern port 51-52 yuan / ton degree.
In terms of manganese ore external disk, South Africa UMK company announced in July 2020 the quotation for Huamanganese ore, Mn36% South African semi-manganese carbonate ore (block ore) was quoted at US $ 6.43 per ton (CIF China main port), and the price was reduced by US $ 0.55 / ton from the previous round Mn36% South African semi-manganese carbonate ore (seed ore) price 6.25 US dollars / ton degree (CIF China main port), the previous price down 0.15 US dollars / ton degree.
South Africa has reported that NUM South Africa once again called on Limpopo province to close all mines on May 20 local time, and paid 100% to the workers. Two large mines around Burgersfort were diagnosed with a large number of COVID-19 positive cases within a week. The first mine diagnosed with a positive case was the Marula platinum mine. There were 19 confirmed cases within 24 hours. There were 30 confirmed COVID-19 positive cases at the Dwarsrivier mine this Monday. NUM called on the Limpopo authorities to take this matter seriously and return to level 5 response as quickly as possible, especially in terms of isolation and travel restrictions. Modikwa Platinum Mine also confirmed COVID-19 positive cases on May 18, 2020.
Downstream rebar spot prices up
As the two conferences approached, the market had good expectations for the overall black industry volume of relevant policies that might be released after the conference, which pushed steel prices upward.
According to statistics, since mid-May, the rebar spot in East China has increased by 90-100 yuan / ton. However, there may be a risk of a slight correction of the spot price in the short term. On the one hand, because the price surge did not come from the demand side, the market acceptance is average, especially the shipment situation in the East China market is not satisfactory. On the other hand, in the case of continuous increase in production and high stocks (according to SMM statistics, as of May 15th, Hangzhou thread stocks were 83.8% higher than the same period last year), steel mills continued to increase market launches under inventory pressure in the second half The pressure on the supply side of the market remains. In addition, from the perspective of the price trend in the middle of the year, the price increase is mainly concentrated in recent days. Traders are still in a state of loss for ten days. After the price increase, the market mentality has not improved significantly. Therefore, on the whole, the 5-3 phase of steel mills is likely to remain flat.
3. Future market forecast
Overall, the bidding price of manganese silicon of Hegang Group was finalized in June. Although the price was lower than last month, the price of manganese ore in the outer disk also fell compared with the previous one. SunSirs analysis believes that the price of manganese and silicon may be slightly reduced in the short term.
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