According to the data of SunSirs, as of May 22, the average price of domestic refined hydrogenated naphtha was 4,342.50 RMB/ ton (tax included), up 137.50 RMB/ ton, or 3.27% compared with the reference price of 4,205.00 RMB/ ton at the beginning of the week (May 18). The actual transaction price of GSH naphtha was about 4,400 RMB/ ton.

On May 22, the naphtha commodity index was 53.59, up 1.01% from the previous day, down 47.78% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and up 26.87% from 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: the price of naphtha continued to rise last week. At present, the domestic demand is limited. The refinery mainly sells in advance. There is no inventory pressure for the time being, and the market supply is sufficient.

Industry chain: upstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, U.S. WTI crude oil was $29.52/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $33.92/ barrel at the end of the week, up 14.91%; Brent crude oil was $32.50/ barrel at the beginning of the week, $36.06/ barrel at the end of the week, up 10.95%. Last week, international crude oil prices rose sharply. Since May, OPEC+ member countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, have implemented large-scale production reduction; U.S. crude oil production also declined significantly; U.S. crude oil inventory and Cushing crude oil inventory also declined significantly. Downstream: according to the monitoring of SunSirs, the domestic toluene market rebounded steadily last week. As of last Friday, the average domestic price was about 3,580 RMB/ ton, up 4.99% compared with the previous week. At present, the mainstream price in East China was about 3,550 RMB/ ton. The domestic xylene market price rebounded steadily last week. As of last Friday, the domestic average price was around 3,620 RMB/ ton, up 5.54% on last week, and the current mainstream price in East China is around 3,660 RMB/ ton. Last week, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, the domestic PX operating rate remained more than 70%, the domestic ex-factory price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable, and the weekend average price was 4,000 RMB/ ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there were 8 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, among which there were 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top 3 commodities were WTI crude oil (14.91%), Brent crude oil (10.95%) and thermal coal (7.11%). There were 6 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling were LNG (-1.61%), petroleum coke (-1.53%) and methanol (-1.21%). Last week's average was up or down 2.55%.

Market Forecast

Energy analysts of SunSirs expect the price of hydrotreating naphtha to rise slightly in the near future, with the average price range of 4,300-4,600 RMB/ ton.

If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.