Aluminum market trends

According to SunSirs data, the average Chinese aluminum ingot market price was 13,360 yuan / ton as of May 27, compared with the average market price of 1,813.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (May 1), an increase of 4.27%.

With the full-scale roll-out of domestic aluminum consumption and resumption of production, domestic and foreign demand has remained stable, and no significant changes have occurred. A small number of companies have increased within the week of starting due to their own order. In May, the supply and demand side improved, and the domestic social inventory continued to decline. On May 21st, electrolytic aluminum social stocks were 979 thousand tons, a weekly decrease of 79,000 tons.

At present, the recent contract price of aluminum in the futures market is higher than that of forward contracts. The futures market is expected to be bearish, mainly based on the poor expectations of overseas prospects and the greater consideration of import and export factors. On the one hand, the foreign aluminum price (LEM) is low, and the import window is open; on the other hand, the downstream aluminum exports are greatly affected by the foreign environment.

The fundamentals of supply and demand in the domestic market have been effectively improved. The short-term destocking supports the strong operation of aluminum prices, with a high probability of maintaining stability in the later period. SunSirs analysts expect that the main operation will be in the range of 13,100-13,500 yuan / ton within the month.

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