1. Price Trend
In May 2020, the Chinese 1 # lead ingot market had a ‘v’ trend. The average domestic market price was 13,975 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 144,381.25 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 2.91%.
The lead commodity index on May 29 was 87.52, a decrease of 0.23 points from yesterday, a decrease of 34.69% from the highest point in the cycle of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 17.27% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present).
2. Market analysis
The futures market maintained a wide range of fluctuations in May lead, and hovered between 1,600-1,700 US dollars. Fundamental influencing factors were mixed. The positive and negative factors were intertwined. The lead was pulled back by the growth of inventory. The Shanghai Futures Lead 07 contract rallied after retreating high, mainly oscillating between 13,l600-14,500 during the month. As of the 29th, it was 14,220 yuan / ton, up 5.33% month-on-month.
The domestic spot lead market showed a good overall trend this month, with a monthly increase of about 300 yuan / ton. The spot lead market fluctuated mainly in the early days, and prices did not fluctuate much. On the 12th, lead in the country fluctuated upwards driven by the domestic market, and was later dragged into the metal market. In the downtrend channel, the lead in London fluctuated back, and the gains were retreated. The domestic low supply of used battery inventories was tight, and the supply of recycled lead was tight, supporting the price of lead to stop stabilizing and slowly entering the upward channel. On the supply side, production is relatively stable, and the operating rate remains at a normal level. On the demand side, downstream lead-acid batteries entered the traditional off-season in May, some small and medium-sized enterprises reduced production, and the demand for lead slightly decreased. In terms of recycled lead, manufacturers in Yungui and Jiangxi started to improve, and waste batteries performed well, rising about 200 yuan / ton this month. On the whole, the fundamentals of the market in May were mixed, and the market was mainly volatile.
According to the price monitoring of the SunSirs, in May 2020, there were a total of 17 kinds of commodities in the colored plate in the commodity price rise and fall list, of which 5 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5% accounted for 22.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top 3 commodities are silver (15.57%), dysprosium oxide (8.68%), and dysprosium iron alloy (7.04%). There were 5 kinds of commodities that fell sequentially, and the top 3 products were praseodymium oxide (-3.28%), antimony (-2.69%), and titanium concentrate (-1.69%). This month's average increase or decrease was 2.6%.
SunSirs predicts that the favorable policies brought about by the closing of the two sessions will further affect the metal market. On the 29th, some metal prices rebounded, and the construction of various industries in China will gradually enter the right track. The overall market environment will still be better in the later period, and the spot lead market will be affected by the downstream Due to the weak demand, the recent fundamentals are positive and negatively intertwined. It is expected that the market will be consolidated in the short term. With the overall market environment improving, downstream production will gradually resume, and there is still room for improvement in the market.
3. Related data
National Bureau of Statistics: China's lead output in April 2020 was 480,900 tons: National Bureau of Statistics data showed that China's lead output in April 2020 was 480,900 tons, with a cumulative output of 1.683 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.60% and a cumulative decrease of 3.20%.
ILZSG: March global lead market supply surplus decreased: International Lead and Zinc Research Group (ILZSG) data released on May 20 showed that the global lead market supply surplus was 14,200 tons in March and 16,400 tons in February. From January to March this year, the cumulative supply surplus was 19,000 tons, compared with 13,000 tons in the same period last year. .
WBMS: Global lead market supply shortage of 170,000 tons from January to March 2020: The World Metal Statistics Bureau (WBMS) monthly report released on May 20 shows that the global lead market supply shortage from January to March 2020 is 17,000 tons, 2019 The annual shortage was 237,000 tons. As of the end of March, the total inventory was reduced by 30,000 tons from the end of 2019. From January to March 2020, global refined lead production was 2.9 million tons, a 4% decrease from the same period last year. China's apparent demand is expected to be 1.197 million tons, a decrease of 220,000 tons from the same period of the previous year, accounting for about 41% of the total global demand. From January to March, the apparent demand in the United States increased by 24,000 tons year-on-year. In March 2020, the global refined lead production was 1.0306 million tons and the demand was 1.0358 million tons.
If you have any questions, please feel free to contact SunSirs with support@sunsirs.com.