1.Price Trend

According to the data monitored by SunSirs (the average price of SG5 manufactured by calcium carbide method), the domestic PVC quotation on September 20 was RMB 6795 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. On September 20, the PVC commodity index was 86.10, down 0.16 points from yesterday, down 13.90% from the peak of 100.00 points in the cycle (2011-09-05), up from the lowest point of 58.27 points on December 20, 2015. 47.76%. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

2.Cause analysis

Product aspect: On September 20, the mainstream market of PVC was stable and fluctuated slightly. The vulnerable consolidation of PVC futures has led to the trend of spot follow-up. The spot fundamentals have not changed much, the trading atmosphere is general, the businessmen still have a strong wait-and-see attitude, the procurement enthusiasm is not high, and the actual turnover is low. At present, downstream on-demand purchasing has no intention of hoarding goods for the time being, the acceptance of high-priced goods is limited, the pressure of inventory in PVC yard is difficult to eliminate, and some merchants'quotations have slightly declined, so they are cautious to wait and see. As of September 20, according to the data of business associations, the mainstream quotation is about RMB 6,600 yuan/ton - 6,900 yuan/ton.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are four kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices on September 20, 2019. The top three commodities are cis-butadiene rubber (1.96%), styrene-butadiene rubber (0.74%) and ABS (0.37%). There are five kinds of products that have declined annually. The first three products are EPS (-1.45%), PET (-0.86%) and natural rubber (-0.43%). The average daily rise and fall was 0.02%.

3.Future Market Forecast

PVC analysts of SunSirs believe that: at present, the demand side is weak, market transactions are cold, coupled with the near National Day, production restriction news, terminal enterprises production hindered, downstream stock enthusiasm is not high, manufacturers do not rule out the possibility of further price reduction to facilitate shipment. It is expected that the overall trend of PVC will be weak next week and consolidation will be dominant.

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