According to SunSirs monitoring, the average price of first graded sugar was 5,783 yuan/ton early this week, and the average price of was 5,773 yuan/ton this weekend, and the price fell by 0.17%.

Market analysis

Sugar:

Except for Yunnan, the main domestic production areas have all been squeezed. The output of Yunnan may exceed the market's expectation, and this year's output may be reduced by 400,000-500,000 tons. In the first quarter of this year, consumption declined due to the closure and isolation of the domestic epidemic. It is gradually recovering. According to data released by the customs, China imported 120,000 tons of sugar in April 2020, an increase of 40,000 tons from the previous month and a decrease of 220,000 from the same period last year. As of the end of April in the 2019/20 crushing season, the cumulative import of sugar was 1.51 million tons, an increase of 120,000 tons year-on-year.

The current focus of the market is more on imports. On the one hand, the import volume of syrup has increased significantly, which will increase the import volume of sugar in disguise, and squeeze the sales of domestic sugar; In the next 1-2 months, sugar imports may increase, and the supply pressure will increase gradually.

Thailand's sugar exports accelerated in April, with a total of 666,400 tons of sugar exported, an increase of 6.81% year-on-year. The cumulative export of sugar in the 2019/20 crushing season as of April was 5.7174 million tons, +9% year-on-year. Thai sugar company TSMC recently said another drought in Thailand, the rainy season rainfall in the northeast sugarcane production area is lower than the same period in previous years, or may lead to a sharp drop in sugar production in the 2020/21 crushing season.

Outlook forecast

SunSirs white granulated sugar analysts believe that domestic sugar sales in May decreased year-on-year, and sugar factory inventories were basically flat year-on-year, and the price gap between domestic and foreign sugar is still high. It is expected that sugar will rise in the short term.

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