1. Chinese live pig price trend in June

According to SunSirs monitoring, the domestic and foreign Sanyuan (hybridization among 3 breeds of pigs) live pig prices rebounded sharply again in June. The average price on June 1 was 28.88 yuan/kg, and the average price on June 30 was 34.53 yuan/kg, a sharp rebound of 19.56%. Overall, Chinese live pig market prices rebounded sharply after bottoming out in the second quarter, and domestic live pig prices returned to their April highs at the end of June.

2. Influencing factors

Supply and demand

In May, Chinese pig prices fell rapidly, and the significant reduction in breeding profit margins caused farmers’ reluctant sell. The supply and demand game in the live pig market intensified, and the overall price of pigs fluctuated after a slight fluctuation. In June, the sales sentiment continued to increase, and the supply of the domestic live pig market continued to decrease. In order to protect the market supply, the slaughterhouse continued to increase the purchase price, driving the price of pigs to bottom up sharply. With the opening of primary and secondary schools, the market demand for terminal meat has rebounded. In addition, more and more rains have caused the difficulty of transporting live pigs. Under the support of terminal market demand, the price of the domestic pig market has continued to rise.

Import

According to data released by the customs, China’s pork imports in May 2020 were 370,000 tons, a 5.13% decrease from the previous month. Affected by COVID-19, pork imports decreased in May, and farmers are reluctant to sell at a high price. Recently, the supply of domestic live pig market has declined, and the market supply and demand game has intensified, further supporting the domestic live pig market price rebound.

Upstream raw materials

In June, the domestic corn price continued to rise by 3.23%, the soybean meal price fell slightly by 0.81%, and the overall cost of farming and feeding was slightly stronger. After the pig price rebounded, the price of piglets rose accordingly. The Chinese farming cost continued to rise, and the cost will be higher, which forms a certain support.

3.Forecase in July

SunSirs live pig product analysts believe that the reluctance to sell has led to a tight supply in the domestic live pig market. The slaughterhouse's continued price hikes to ensure market supply have driven domestic pig prices back to a higher level. Overall, the demand for terminal meat is still relatively weak. The rapid upward price will play a certain role in suppressing the demand of the terminal meat market. The supply and demand game of the domestic pig market in the future market will be more intense. It is expected that the price of the domestic pig market will rebound to around 35.5 yuan/kg in July after a small fluctuation.

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