Last week, PVC fell first and then rose. On the weekend, the spot market was driven by the rise of futures and the price rose. According to the data monitored by SunSirs (the average ex-factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the domestic mainstream average price of PVC on July 3 was 6,257.50 RMB/ ton, up 0.12% compared with the previous day, and decreased by 7.64% compared with the same period last year. The maximum amplitude in the period is 17.09%

Market Analysis

On July 3, PVC market stopped falling and turned to rise. Due to the sharp rise of futures and the strength of the market, PVC spot market followed closely. At present, the social inventory continues to be de stocked, some enterprises are still in the state of maintenance, the supply side still has some favorable support, the enterprise shipment is normal, the manufacturer's confidence in supporting prices has been enhanced, and the market trading atmosphere has improved. On the whole, the fundamentals have not changed much, and the relationship between supply and demand is relatively stable.

On the spot, according to the data monitoring of SunSirs, as of July 3, the mainstream domestic PVC quotation range was around 6,100-6,350 RMB/ ton. At present, the mainstream price of PVC 5 type tourmaline in Changzhou is around 6,200-6,260 RMB/ ton, that in Hangzhou is 6,300-6,380 RMB/ ton, and that in Guangzhou is around 6,400-6,450 RMB/ ton, which can be negotiated.

In terms of futures, PVC 2009 contracts on July 2 was closing at 6,290 RMB/ ton, +125 yuan compared with the previous trading day; trading volume 214,774 hands, +120,148 hands; 190,668 positions, +14,887 hands, basis difference of -50 RMB, -130 RMB; 9-1 price difference of 180 RMB, +15 RMB. The opening price of V2009 contract on July 3 was 6,275, the highest price was 6,380, the lowest price was 6,260, and the closing price was 6,335, +115, up 1.85%.

In terms of supply, last week, the operating rate of production enterprises was over 70%. Most of the maintenance enterprises recovered and their output increased to some extent. Since July, the number of maintenance enterprises decreases, and the maintenance plan of some enterprises is postponed to August. The social inventory continues to decline, but the speed slowes down. On the whole, the supply continues to rise, and there is still some good news, but is gradually weakened.

In terms of demand, at present, the terminal operating rate is at a slightly higher level in the year, and the manufacturing market is still recovering. Overall, the performance of the demand side is fair, but it is difficult to drive the market to rise sharply in the off-season.

Market Forecast

According to the PVC analysts of SunSirs, at present, the overall inventory of PVC continues to be removed, the enterprises maintenance is reduced, and there are still some advantages. The demand side is in the traditional off-season, while the support still exists, and the trading atmosphere is getting better. It is expected that the trend of PVC in the short term will be more volatile, with the possibility of continued rise, but the space is limited.

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