According to the data from SunSirs, the price of China domestic refiners' petroleum coke products rose. On July 13, the average price of petroleum coke in Shandong market was 1,182.5 RMB/ ton, and on July 17, the average price of petroleum coke in the market was 1,232.5 RMB/ ton, with a price increase of 4.23%. On July 16, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 94.31, up 0.59 points compared with the previous day, 39.39% lower than 155.59 points (2018-01-25), and 40.99% higher than 66.89 points, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

Last week, the price of petroleum coke was rising due to the shortage of resources. On July 17, the price of petroleum coke in Shandong remained stable, and the price of some refineries rose slightly, with an increase range of 30-50 RMB/ ton. The operating rate of the plant was not high, the current inventory was low; the downstream was actively replenishing, and the refinery was mainly holding the price and waiting.

Upstream: on July 16, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market price fell, and the settlement price of the main contract was $40.93/ barrel, down $0.27. The price of Brent crude oil futures market fell, with the settlement price of the main contract falling by $0.42 to $43.37/ barrel, mainly due to OPEC+'s agreement to relax the supply limit of record production reduction, and the continuous surge in the number of cases of the US epidemic, which triggered demand concerns.

Downstream: the downstream glass market has risen steadily, and the recent recovery and increase of glass production capacity have also accelerated. In addition, affected by weather factors such as rainfall in Meiyu season, some production enterprises in some regions have risen slightly. The traditional sales peak season is coming, and the enthusiasm of downstream traders and processing enterprises to prepare goods has also increased. The price of prebaked anode is stable and the downstream market needs to purchase; the price of alumina continues to fall.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of SunSirs, there were 10 commodities in the energy sector rising and falling list in the 27th week (7.6-7.10) of 2020, with petroleum coke (3.73%), asphalt (3.66%) and gasoline (2.81%) rising as the top 3. There were 4 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with coke (-2.76%), WTI crude oil (-1.34%) and naphtha (-1.11%). Last week, the average rise and fall was 0.81%.

Market Forecast

The price of petroleum coke in the market is affected by tight supply of resources and strong support from downstream electrolytic aluminum. However, in the later period, the price of petroleum coke has risen to a certain high level, and carbon enterprises have lost profits, and the mood has changed slightly. According to the data, the operating rate of coking units has increased. As of July 16, the start-up rate of China's local refineries was 47.82%, 0.14 percentage points higher than that of July 9, and the operating rate of Shandong georefining was 51.73%, 0.93% higher than that of July 9. It is predicted that the short-term petroleum coke market may still have a small increase space, and the later stage may tend to be stable operation, which depends on the downstream market demand.

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