On July 21, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.92/ barrel, up $1.00. The price of Brent crude oil futures market rose, with the settlement price of main contracts rising by $1.04, to $44.32/ barrel. The oil price hit a high of more than four months, mainly due to the obvious progress made in the US stimulus plan and the EU recovery fund. In addition, breakthroughs were also made in vaccine and the demand worries eased.

In the past two months, the oil price continued to fluctuate in a narrow range at the position of $40/ barrel, and the market was in a state of anxiety. On the one hand, the United States, the European Union and other economies show signs of further recovery, and various economic indicators are also optimistic. Oil producing countries such as OPEC+ are still in the period of record production reduction, and the effect of production reduction is still positive. The implementation rate of production reduction in many countries is more than 100%. Therefore, since July, the oil price is still above $40/ barrel, which is strong and volatile. However, on the other hand, the current crude oil market is also uncertain, mainly due to overseas countries, such as the United States, Brazil, India and other countries, the epidemic situation is still very serious, the number of new confirmed cases continues to be high. As of July 21, more than 4 million cases have been confirmed in the United States, more than 2 million in Brazil and more than 1 million in India. Moreover, the divergence of the government on the issue of further measures has also raised concerns about restricting economic activities, further affecting the demand for crude oil.

At present, market news factors are more disturbing, there is no lack of good news, on July 21, oil prices also reached a high of more than 4 months. The main reason is the favorable economic stimulus policy and the breakthrough in vaccine. In the morning of July 21 (local time), after five days of long negotiations, EU leaders finally reached an agreement on a European recovery fund worth 750 billion euros. This has brought significant benefits to the European market, which has been hit hard by the COVID-19. Meanwhile, it has further strengthened the euro, and also has a boosting effect on risk assets, which naturally benefits crude oil. Judging from the reaction of oil price, Brent and WTI both increased by more than $1 a day.

In addition to the economic stimulus, there was also good news on the vaccine side. Pfizer and its partner, German biotechnology company BioNTech20, announced that their 1/2 phase COVID-19 vaccine research in Germany has made initial positive progress, and no serious adverse reactions have occurred. Although the vaccine will not be available until a few months at the earliest, many companies are testing new drugs for immunization. Further boost market confidence.

In addition, the latest U.S. commercial crude oil inventory data pointed to the negative, further dampening the crude oil rally. On July 21, the data released by the American Petroleum Association (API) on Tuesday showed that US crude oil inventories unexpectedly rose sharply last week, while gasoline and distillate oil inventories fell. U.S. crude oil inventories rose 7.544 million barrels in the week ended July 17, according to API data, while analysts expected a 2.1 million barrel decrease. API said Cushing, Oklahoma, had increased its crude oil inventory by 716,000 barrels. API data showed that refinery refining capacity increased by 540,00 barrel/ day. After API data was released, WTI and Brent two oil short-term decline. The negative crude oil inventory data confirms that the current market demand is still weak. Although fuel demand has recovered slowly after a sharp drop of one-third in April, consumption is still far below the level before the COVID-19. With the increasingly serious epidemic situation in the United States and other countries and regions, there is a risk of further decline in fuel demand.

In the view of SunSirs, oil prices may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range around the $40/ barrel due to the short-term factors. In addition to the impact of the epidemic, it is also necessary to take into account the issue that OPEC+ and other oil producing countries are about to end their record production reduction. At present, there are signs that some oil producing countries are inclined to relax the restrictions on production reduction, and these factors will drag crude oil prices to continue to rise.

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