Trend analysis

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the cobalt price fluctuated up in July. Since last week, the cobalt market has risen sharply. This week, the cobalt price has soared for two consecutive trading days. As of July 28, the average cobalt price was 269,666.66 yuan/ton, which was an increase of 9.25% from the average cobalt price of 246,833.33 yuan/ton on July 20; it was 251,333.33 yuan/ton from the average cobalt price last weekend (July 26). Tons rose by 7.29%. The price of cobalt has skyrocketed, and the cobalt market has returned.

Non-ferrous metal sector index

According to the SunSirs index statistics, the non-ferrous sector has slowly recovered and rose since April. Since July, the non-ferrous sector has risen linearly, and the non-ferrous sector has performed strongly. The non-ferrous sector in the spot market is showing "positive heat", which is positive for the cobalt market.

Non-ferrous metal capital flow

According to the statistics of capital flow in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, it can be seen that in the past 10 days, capital flows in the non-ferrous metals sector have been active, and the hot money flow in the market has greatly stimulated the cobalt market, and the market is bullish. The non-ferrous sector of the stock market rose significantly, with frequent changes of hands, and the non-ferrous sector of the stock market was booming.

European new energy vehicle policy stimulates sales

During the epidemic, many European countries introduced economic stimulus policies for electric vehicles. In May, France announced an 8 billion auto industry support plan to increase the amount of bicycle subsidies; in June, Germany launched a 130 billion economic stimulus plan to increase the amount of bicycle subsidies again; Greece and Spain announced new energy vehicle subsidy plans; July the Netherlands announced an electric vehicle subsidy plan , The policy will last until 2025. Affected by policy stimulus, European sales in June doubled year-on-year, and monthly sales exceeded the level before the epidemic. In June, a total of 81,000 new energy vehicles were registered in the 10 European countries, a year-on-year increase of 96%. Among them, Germany sold 19,000 electric vehicles in June, a year-on-year increase of 115%, and a month-on-month increase of 51%; France sold 21,000 in June, a year-on-year increase Up 259%, up 193% month-on-month; UK sales in June were 14,000 vehicles, up 261% year-on-year and up 331% month-on-month. The sharp increase in sales of new energy vehicles is a positive stimulus to the cobalt market. The rising momentum of the cobalt market increased.

Market summary

SunSirs data analysts believe that after COVID-19, with the recovery of the domestic economic environment, the production and sales of domestic new energy vehicles and mobile phones have gradually recovered; while in the international market, in order to stimulate the economy, many governments have introduced economic stimulus policies, and European markets have been stimulated by policies. The production and sales of new energy vehicles have increased significantly, which is positive for the cobalt market. Recently, non-ferrous metal transactions in the stock market have been active. The non-ferrous sector in the spot market has gained significant momentum. Hot money in the market has entered the non-ferrous metal market. The bullish attitude of the non-ferrous sector has become prominent. As a small metal product, cobalt is vulnerable to hot money, which has set off a new wave of investment boom. Under the influence of positive news, the cobalt market may re-emerge, and the cobalt price may hit the short-term peak, but the overall supply and demand of the cobalt market is not imbalanced. The cobalt market has insufficient support on the supply and demand side, and the cobalt price is difficult to hit the 300,000 peak in the short term.

Related listed companies: Huayou Cobalt (603799), Hanrui Cobalt (300618), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993).

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