According to the data from SunSirs, the prices of domestic refiners' petroleum coke products rose overall in July. The average market price of Shandong Petroleum coke market at the beginning of the month was about 1,140 RMB/ ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was 1,237.50 RMB/ ton, an increase of 8.55% and a decrease of 4.81% compared with last year. On July 29, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 96.25, unchanged with yesterday, 38.14% lower than 155.59 (2018-01-25), and 43.89% higher than 66.89, the lowest point on March 28, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2012-09-30 to now)

Analysis of Influencing Factors

The rise in the price of petroleum coke in the first ten days of July is mainly due to the obvious decline in the operating rate of petroleum coke units in independent refineries and the tight supply of petroleum coke, resulting in the price rise. The price of local refining petroleum coke market was affected by the tight supply of resources and the strong support of downstream electrolytic aluminum. However, in the later period, the price of petroleum coke rose to a certain high level, and the price of petroleum coke began to maintain a volatile price and high consolidation operation.

Upstream: on July 29, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $41.27/ barrel, up $0.23. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $43.09/ barrel, up $0.48. Oil prices rose mainly due to the largest drop in US crude oil inventories in the year. The price of crude oil in the upstream of petroleum coke remained high in July, and the crude oil price was relatively strong. Downstream: the downstream glass market remained stable and rose steadily in July.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 29th week (7.20-7.24) of 2020, there were 1 kind of commodity rising and 2 kinds of falling commodity in the price rising and falling list of chlor alkali industry, and there were 2 kinds of commodities with the rise and fall of 0. The main commodities that rose were calcium carbide (5.49%); the main commodities that fell were PVC (-0.77%) and light soda ash (-0.52%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.84%.

Market Forecast

The oil coke analysts of SunSirs believe that the price of petroleum coke in the local refining market in the first ten days of July was affected by the tight supply of resources and the strong support of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream. In the late July, the price of petroleum coke in Shandong was stable, and the prices of some refineries declined slightly. At present, the inventory in the factory remains at a low level, and the transaction is acceptable. At present, the overall operating load of refineries is not high, the supply of petroleum coke is limited, and the price reduction of refineries is not strong. It is expected that the short-term China petroleum coke market will mainly run smoothly in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

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