SunSirs: Oct 9

On Oct 8, the Lead Commodity Index was 104.26, 0.84 higher than that of yesterday, 22.20% lower than the peak of 134.01 in the cycle (Nov 29, 2016), and 39.70% higher than the lowest point of 74.63 (Mar 19, 2015). (Cycle: Sep 1, 2011 to date)

The US Dollar Index was strong on Oct 8 mainly because of the high-level consultation on Sino-US Economic and Trade, the closing price of USD was 98.986, increasing 0.15%; In October, the probability that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.50% - 1.75% is 74.3%, while the probability of maintaining the current interest rate is 25.7%; In December, the probability of reducing interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.50% - 1.75% is 36.2%, while the probability of reducing interest rates by 50 basis points is 50.6%. On crude oil, U.S. crude oil rose first and then fell back, a new survey shows that analysts expect U.S. crude oil stocks have increased last week, preliminary surveys show that the stocks may have been rising for 4 consecutive weeks, with an estimated increase of 2.6 million barrels. Affected by those, the metal market rose and fell by half, AHD increased almost 1.5%, CAD and PBD increased almost 0.6%, NID decreased almost 0.1%, SND decreased almost 0.2% and ZSD decreased almost 0.9%.

PBD trend: The opening price of PBD overnight was 2,182USD/t. In Asian trading, PBD swung lower to 2,170USD/t. In European trading, PBD went up, the highest point is 2,189.5USD/t, the closing price was 2137.5USD/t, decreasing 44.5USD/t (2.04%).

PB trend: The opening price of PB overnight was 17,180RMB/t. Affected by foreign trend, the opening prices was low and it countined at low, the lowest price was 17,015RMB/t. The closing price was 17,040RMB/t, decreasing 165RMB/t (0.96%), the open interest decreased 1,644 lots to 54,354 lots.

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