Price trend

According to the monitoring data by SunSirs, the domestic soda ash price has risen. The current market average price in East China is about 1,400 RMB/ton, down 17.17% from the same period last year. The light soda ash commodity index on August 3 was 67.86, an increase of 1.19 points from yesterday, a decrease of 42.42% from the highest point in the cycle of 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and an increase of 7.46% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to present)

Analysis review

According to SunSirs, the overall trend of the domestic soda ash market has risen steadily, with price fluctuations, with a single-day increase of 6.41% on August 3. The main reasons: First, the total inventory of soda ash has decreased. In July, domestic soda ash production was 2.3097 million tons, an increase of 256,600 tons from the previous month. The overall operating rate of soda ash in July 2020 was 71.85%, an increase of 5.27% from the previous month. The stock of soda ash at the beginning of the month was 1,250,100 tons, and at the end of the month was 1,023,300 tons. The inventory decreased by 226,800 tons, a decrease of 18.14%.The destocking situation was good, and the company's quotation was raised.

The second reason is the increase in soda ash inventory in the mainstream downstream glass industry. Recently, terminal demand in the glass spot market has been steadily rising, and orders from processing companies have also improved slightly. Manufacturers take the initiative to pull prices at the right time to boost market confidence. The speed of purchasing glass by downstream processing companies has also improved slightly from the previous month for later processing. Generally speaking, with the gradual weakening of rainfall and high-temperature weather, the traditional peak sales season will come, and the prices of manufacturers will continue to increase slightly.

The third reason is the spirit of the soda ash industry conference at the end of July. The price of soda ash will be raised in August. The price of light soda ash will be raised by 150 RMB/ton on the basis of July, and the price of heavy soda ash will be raised by 300 RMB/ton.

Market outlook

SunSirs analysts believe that the downstream procurement of soda ash companies is not active in price adjustment, and procurement is based on the best. At the market mentality level, companies have a strong mentality to increase prices, and some companies control shipments or seal orders. The overall shipments of traders are average, the purchase price has no advantage, the shipments are light, the old customers are supported, and the new orders are few. In addition, the early order prices are low and the shipments are smooth. After the price was announced, the market volume was not optimistic, the downstream conflicts, and the wait-and-see attitude was maintained. But in fact, the market sentiment of soda ash enterprises is dull, the downstream demand has not improved significantly, and the procurement is mainly on-demand. It is comprehensively estimated that the short-term soda ash price may become more rational, with the main focus on maintaining stable operation.

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