Price Trend

According to the data from SunSirs Bulk Commodity Pricing, August 11 ABS market condition rose, and the increasing ranges of most grades are quite broad. As of 4pm, the mainstream offer price of universal ABS is about 13,150 RMB/ton, a gain of 3.14% in one day and a drop of 1.94% from the beginning of the month.

Factor Analysis

ABS upstream, styrene these days in China still continues the operation of destocking. As for the far cost side, crude oil fluctuates, but the prices of pure benzene and ethylene are stable, so there is no clear direction for styrene price. The downstream demands for styrene don’t have an improvement, the following-up consumption from factories is not adequate, and the orders depend on rigid demands. It’s reported that recently the port inventory fare of styrene has adjusted upward, intensifying the burden of destocking. The attitudes of traders are pessimistic, so they mainly surrender profits to clear the inventory. It’s estimated that recently styrene disk will function weakly.

Regarding acrylonitrile, the upstream of ABS, China acrylonitrile market turns positive last month. Recently, the domestic market has been stable. The cost-end fluctuates, and the current price is at a shocking high level. The increase in raw materials puts pressure on the factory, so the factory reduces load operations and the contradiction between supply and demand has also improved. The downstream is just in need of purchasing, and stocking operations are cautious, but the factory has recently reduced production again to stimulate the market's bullish sentiment. Traders have acceptable shipments and low inventories. The acrylonitrile market is expected to remain stable.

China butadiene market saw a significant increase last month, on which the domestic and foreign markets performed strongly. The domestic supply side was limited in volume, and the market supply release was not as expected; at the same time, due to the weather, the unloading of some cargoes in East China was delayed, and the spot supply was temporarily tight, which boosts supplier prices to accelerate upward, driving the market to climb higher.

However, with the rapid upward trend in the market, a cautious atmosphere in the market gradually emerged. Recently, the cargo arrivals and the supply of Northeast China have increased, and high-priced transactions have been blocked, dragging the market down slightly. The butadiene market fluctuates slightly. According to the monitoring price of SunSirs, the domestic butadiene market price is 4,473 RMB/ton in the first week of August, the domestic market price of butadiene on weekends is 4,451 RMB/ton, a decrease of 0.50% during the week. The price increases by 28.15% from the same period last month and falls 54.99% from the same period last year. Butadiene's current supply side is still positive, and the recent trend is expected to be stable.

In early August, China ABS price market continues the slow decline of last month, and the operating rate of China ABS petrochemical plants remained at a high level. Recently, the supply situation has tightened again, and the market rose on August 11, with most grades having an increase of 200-600 RMB/ton. In addition, the stock of ABS has been at a low level, and the spot circulation in the market just picks up at the end of last month. In August, due to the continued overseas public health incidents, the number of imported goods to Hong Kong decreases. Traders are currently positive, and downstream factories are tentatively stocking operations, but they are still cautious.

Market Outlook

SunSirs analysts think that on August 11, the ABS market rises sharply, and the prices of various brands have a certain increase. On the cost side, the upstream three materials have seen mixed trends in the near future, and support the cost side generally. At present, the spot supply of ABS is tightening again, and the downstream is holding a wait-and-see attitude towards the reduction of ABS supply, taking tentatively and operating with caution. The resistance of traders to shipment is reduced, and there is not much room for real orders. It is expected that domestic ABS prices may continue to rise in the near future.

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