1. Trend analysis
According to SunSirs nickel price monitoring, spot nickel was quoted at 114,683.33 yuan/ton on the 17th, up 0.6% from the previous trading day, up 0.84% from the beginning of the year, and down 9.56% year-on-year. The main Shanghai nickel market opened at 114,380 yuan, and the price rose sharply after the opening, closing at 115,950 yuan, an increase of 1.62%. LME March nickel closed at $14,575 at the time of writing, an increase of 1.36%.
2. Market analysis
In terms of nickel ore, the port inventory was 8.08 million tons, which rebounded from the previous month. Philippine mines shipped 65 ships that week, which continued to remain high, and the tight supply situation continued to ease. However, the inventory of nickel ore is still at a low level, and the downstream just needs to stock up, and the ore price is expected to remain high. At present, the prices of ferronickel and scrap stainless steel are firm, and the output of stainless steel hit a record high. With the arrival of the peak season of traditional stainless steel consumption in September, the demand for nickel from stainless steel will remain high. Demand for new energy has gradually improved, and China's new energy vehicle production has continued to rebound from the previous month. However, in the consumer terminal, real estate investment completion still maintains a negative growth, and domestic stainless steel consumption is under pressure. In terms of ferronickel, the Delong Qingshan Industrial Park in Indonesia was put into production at the end of the second quarter, and several production lines were still put into operation from July to August. Later, Indonesia's NPI concentrated iron production. A large amount of low-cost ferronickel returns to the country, and the domestic ferronickel may show a surplus in the third quarter.
3. Outlook
Nickel's short-term fundamentals are acceptable, but with the commissioning of ferronickel, the upside potential for nickel will be under certain pressure. It is expected that nickel will maintain a high and volatile trend in the short term.
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