1. Trend analysis

On August 19, spot copper was quoted at RMB 52,305/ton, an increase of 2.26% from the previous day, an increase of 6.67% from the beginning of the year, and a year-on-year increase of 12.53%. The three-month LME copper contract opened quickly to rise to US$6,686 and was under pressure. After that, it oscillated. The Asian market closed at US$6,633, an increase of 0.52%. The main Shanghai copper market opened in the morning and continued to rise to 52,520 yuan and then fell back to close at 52,150 yuan. An increase of 2.60%.

Global copper smelting activity fell in July to its lowest level in more than two years. The weak performance seems to be partly due to increased maintenance work at smelters. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on Tuesday showed that China's refined copper production in July was 814,000 tons, unchanged from the previous year, and down 5.3% from the previous month. Rio Tinto lowered its annual production target to 135 to 175 thousand tons, from 165,000 to 205,000 tons. Due to the continued outflow of inventories, overseas inventories continued to fall, and LME copper inventories fell to their lowest level in 13 years on Tuesday. In the spot market, holders are reluctant to sell at prices, and middlemen just need to buy. The downstream is afraid of high and wait-and-see, and transactions are average.

Based on the above situation, the decline in overseas inventories of refined copper and the decline in production have caused copper prices to rise, but the market is still at the end of the off-season in August, and copper prices are expected to remain high and volatile.

Related listed companies: Jiangxi Copper (600362), Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630), Yunnan Copper (000878).

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