According to data from SunSirs, the average domestic aluminum ingot market price was RMB 14,776.67/ton on August 31, a decrease of 1.55% from the average market price at the beginning of the month (August 1) of RMB 15,010/ton; March 1) 14,553.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.53%; compared with the average market price during the year (March 24) 11230 yuan/ton, an increase of 31.50%.

In August, the price of aluminum ingots first fell and then rose, with a shock range of 1,4400-15,000 yuan/ton.

Overview of supply and demand in August

1. After the sharp decline in social inventory, a slight rebound

The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased slightly in August, and the inventory fell slightly in the fourth week. According to statistics, as of August 28, the domestic social stock of electrolytic aluminum (including SHFE warehouse receipts) totaled 755,000 tons, compared with 762,000 tons of domestic electrolytic aluminum stock on August 20, a weekly decrease of 7,000 tons; compared with July 23 At 702,000 tons per day, inventory increased by 53,000 tons.

2. The news of raw alumina is positive

In mid-August, according to the official website of Norsk Hydro, the maintenance of the ore pipeline at its Paragominas bauxite mine in Brazil was suspended. The pipeline will be restored within two months. Hydro said that this overhaul will affect the Alunorte alumina plant's production reduction, which is expected to reach 35%-45% of the total annual production capacity. Official data show that the plant has an annual production capacity of 6.3 million tons.

The short-term supply of alumina has dropped sharply, combined with the current strong aluminum price, and the enthusiasm of the alumina market has rebounded. On the cost side, the price has been supported to a certain extent.

3. Downstream consumption recovery continues to improve

In July, auto production and sales were 2.201 million and 2.112 million, up 21.9% and 16.4% year-on-year; from January to July, auto production and sales were 12.314 million and 12.365 million, down 11.8% and 12.7% respectively.

Market outlook is expected

In the third quarter, there is an expectation of a peak consumption season in the market, and the market outlook is dominated by strong shocks. It is expected that the price of aluminum ingots in September will range from 14,500-15,500 yuan/ton.

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