1. Trend analysis

According to SunSirs nickel price monitoring, on the 8th, spot nickel was quoted at RMB 119,350/ton, down 0.53% from the previous trading day, up 4.94% from the beginning of the year, and down 15.62% year-on-year. The main Shanghai nickel market opened at 119,260 yuan, and the price fluctuated within a narrow range after the opening, closing at 119,610 yuan, an increase of 0.45%. LME's March nickel closed at $15,220 at the time of writing, an increase of 0.13%.

2. Market analysis

The U.S. dollar rebounded and metals met obstacles. The recent release of Indonesia's ferronickel production capacity caused concerns about increased supply, and nickel prices declined slightly. The fundamental performance of nickel is temporarily stable, but the price of stainless steel tends to peak at a high level, and the upward pressure on nickel prices continues to increase. Domestic nickel ore inventories are still at a low level, and the tight supply of nickel ore has not been eased. The Philippines is about to enter the rainy season, and the enthusiasm of ferronickel plants is high, so nickel ore prices are firm. Domestic demand for new energy vehicles is also gradually recovering. The sales of new energy vehicles in Europe are increasing rapidly. Nickel prices may rise and hardly fall in the third quarter; if the new capacity of Xiangyu stainless steel in Indonesia is put into production on schedule, or the domestic production of 300 series stainless steel maintains the current high level, The oversupply of ferronickel was limited in the fourth quarter. Stainless steel inventories continue to decline, the output of 300 series stainless steel continues to increase, and the supply of stainless steel is tightening to support steel prices.

3. Outlook

Nickel's short-term fundamentals are acceptable. Focus on the concentrated production of ferronickel in Indonesia. Since the end of the second quarter of the Indonesian industrial park, many production lines have been put into operation, but the amount of ferronickel returned to the country is temporarily lower than expected. The rainy season in the Philippines is superimposed on the peak consumption season in September, and nickel prices are expected to remain high in the short term.

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