Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex-factory price of urea in Shandong region dropped slightly this week. The quotation dropped from 1710.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 1703.33 RMB/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 6.67 RMB/ton, or 0.39%, compared with the same period last year, it was down 6.07% year-on-year. On the whole, the urea market fell slightly this week, and the urea commodity index on September 25 was 79.22.

Analysis review   

Judging from the manufacturers' quotations, the mainstream ex-factory prices of urea in Shandong this week dropped slightly. Yangmei Plain Urea was quoted at 1,720 RMB/ton this weekend, which was a decrease of 20 RMB/ton compared to the beginning of the week; Shandong Ruixing Urea was quoted at 1,680 RMB/ton this weekend. Compared with the beginning of the week, the offer was temporarily stable; Ming Shuihua Urea was quoted at 1,710 RMB/ton this weekend. Compared with the beginning of the week, the price was temporarily stable.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the upstream liquid ammonia has consolidated at a high level recently, and the cost support was good. Domestic demand was acceptable, and agricultural demand in some areas followed up. Industrial demand followed the market and purchased on demand. On the supply side, some devices were overhauled, and some stocks were tight.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chain: the overall urea upstream products have risen slightly this week: the price of LNG has risen slightly, and the quotation has risen from 2,380.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 2,420.00 RMB/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.68%, compared with the same period last year, down 13.98% year-on-year; the price of liquid ammonia temporarily stabilized this week, with a quotation of 3,100.00 RMB/ton, down 4.42% year-on-year compared to the same period last year. Overall, the cost of urea this week was weakly supported. The price of melamine downstream of urea rose slightly this week, from 5,500.00 RMB/ton at the beginning of the week to 5,600.00 RMB/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.82%.

Market outlook

In late September, the urea market in Shandong may fluctuate mainly. The urea analyst of SunSirs believes that the current agricultural demand has followed up, and the downstream industries are generally enthusiastic about urea purchases. As the National Day approaches, the market trading atmosphere weakens, manufacturers cut prices to attract orders. It is expected that the short-term urea market will mainly fluctuate slightly.

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